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首页> 外文期刊>Acta Geophysica Polonica >INTENSE PRECIPITATION AND HIGH RIVER FLOWS IN EUROPE - OBSERVATIONS AND PROJECTIONS
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INTENSE PRECIPITATION AND HIGH RIVER FLOWS IN EUROPE - OBSERVATIONS AND PROJECTIONS

机译：欧洲的强降水和高河流量-观测与预报

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Several destructive floods have occurred in the last decade in Europe, causing record high material damage. The question of detection and attribution of changes in various flood-related indices attracts increasing interest. Among the mechanisms that can impact flood risk are changes in socio-economic systems, which influence terrestrial systems, and changes in the climatic system. The atmosphere's water holding capacity (and hence potential for intense precipitation) increases with temperature and more intense precipitation has been documented in the warming world. However, a general and coherent increase in high river flows has not been detected. Results of change detection studies of daily river flow in Europe show that the overall maxima (for the 1961-2000 period) occurred more frequently in the subperiod 1981-2000 than in the subperiod 1961-1980. Regional changes in the timing of floods have been reported in many areas of Europe, with increasing incidence of late autumn and winter floods (caused by rain) and fewer spring snowmelt floods. Also, the number of ice-jam related inundations has decreased. On the other hand, intensive and long-lasting summer precipitation episodes have led to disastrous floods in Central Europe (cf. the 1997 Odra/Oder flood, the 2001 Vistula flood, and the most destructive 2002 deluge on the Labe/Elbe), and river flooding has been recently recognized as a major hazard in the region. Significant differences between future projections and the reference period, indicating the likelihood of increasing flood hazard, have been identified in both intense precipitation and high flows.
机译：在过去的十年中，欧洲发生了几次破坏性洪水，造成了历史最高的物质损失。各种洪水相关指数变化的检测和归因问题引起了越来越多的关注。可能影响洪水风险的机制包括影响土地系统的社会经济系统的变化以及气候系统的变化。随着温度的升高，大气的持水量（以及随之而来的强降水的潜力）增加，并且在变暖的世界中已经记录到更强的降水。但是，尚未发现高流量的总体和连贯的增长。欧洲每日河流量变化检测研究的结果表明，总的最大值（1961-2000年期间）比1961-1980年期间更为频繁（1981-2000年）。据报道，欧洲许多地区的洪水发生时间发生了区域变化，深秋和冬季洪水（由雨引起）的发生率增加，春季融雪洪水减少。同样，与冰堵塞有关的淹没数量也有所减少。另一方面，强烈而持久的夏季降水事件导致了中欧的灾难性洪灾（参见1997年Odra / Oder洪灾，2001年Vistula洪灾以及2002年Labe / Elbe最具破坏性的洪水），以及最近，人们已经认识到河流洪水是该地区的主要灾害。在强降雨和高流量中都已发现，未来预测与参考期之间存在显着差异，表明可能增加洪灾危险。

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