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THE FAILURE RATE OF LOW-HEAD GROUND DAMS OF DANGEROUS AND UNSATISFACTORY SAFETY LEVEL

机译:低头地面水坝的故障率危险和不满意的安全水平

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摘要

The results of an expert survey of 1024 ground dams of class IV located in the Moscow Region were processed by the methods of the system theory of reliability. Exponential curves for unsatisfactory and dangerous safety levels retained by structures are constructed. The period during which the dam safety level will decrease and the number of dams, the safety level of which will decrease by an order of magnitude, are estimated. Using Markov analysis, a probabilistic forecast of the dam's compliance with each safety level over time was made. A method for calculating the recovery frequency of the safety level of low-head ground dams is proposed.
机译:通过系统可靠性理论的方法处理位于莫斯科地区的1024级地面水坝专家调查结果。 构建了由结构保留的不令人满意和危险安全水平的指数曲线。 大坝安全水平降低的时期和坝的数量,估计大量减少的安全水平。 使用马尔可夫分析,制作了大坝遵守时间随时间遵守每个安全水平的概率预测。 提出了一种计算低头地面坝安全水平的恢复频率的方法。

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