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首页> 外文期刊>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America >Drought is a recurring challenge in the Middle East
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Drought is a recurring challenge in the Middle East

机译：干旱是中东地区反复出现的挑战

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摘要

Climate change and water availability in the Middle East are important in understanding human adaptive capacities in the face of long-term environmental changes-. The key role of water availability for sedentary and nomad populations in these arid to semiarid landscapes is understood, but the millennium-scale influence of hydrologic instability on vegetation dynamics, human occupation, and historic land use are unknown, which has led to a stochastic view of population responses and adaptive capacities to precipitation anomalies. Within the time-frame of the last two global climate events,the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, we report hydrologic instability reconstructed from pollen-derived climate proxies recovered near Tell Leilan, at the Wadi Jarrah in the Khabur Plains of northeastern Syria, at the heart of ancient northern Mesopotamia. By coupling climate proxies with archaeological-historical data and a pollen-based record of agriculture, this integrative study suggests that variability in precipitation is a key factor on crop yields,productivity, and economic systems. It may also have been one of the main parameters controlling human settlement and population migrations at the century to millennial timescales in the arid to semiarid areas of the Middle East. An abrupt shift to drier conditions at ca. AD 1400 is contemporaneous with a change from sedentary village life to regional desertion and nomadization (sheep/camel pastoralists) during the preindustrial era in formerly Ottoman realms, and thereby adds climate change to the multiple causes for Ottoman Empire "decline."
机译：面对长期的环境变化，中东的气候变化和水资源供应对于理解人类的适应能力至关重要。人们了解在这些干旱至半干旱景观中，久坐和游牧人口可获得水的关键作用，但水文不稳定性对植被动态，人类占领和历史土地利用的千年规模影响尚不清楚，这导致了人们的随机性人口对降水异常的反应和适应能力。在最近的两次全球气候事件（中世纪气候异常和小冰期）的时间范围内，我们报告了从叙利亚东北部哈伯平原瓦迪耶拉附近泰勒·莱兰附近发现的花粉衍生的气候代理重建的水文不稳定性，位于古代美索不达米亚北部的心脏地带。通过将气候代理与考古历史数据和基于花粉的农业记录相结合，这项综合研究表明降水量的变化是影响作物产量，生产力和经济体系的关键因素。它可能已经是控制人类干旱和中东干旱至半干旱地区百年至千禧年尺度人类定居和人口迁移的主要参数之一。突然转变为干燥条件。在公元1400年之前的工业时代，以前的奥斯曼帝国就从久坐的乡村生活转变为区域性的荒漠化和游牧化（绵羊/骆驼牧民），从而使气候变化成为造成奥斯曼帝国“衰落”的多种原因。

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    David Kaniewski; Elise Van Campo; Harvey Weiss;

  • 作者单位

    Laboratoire Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement, Institut National Polytechique, Universite Paul Sabatier, Universite de Toulouse, 31062 Toulouse,France,Laboratoire Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, 31062 Toulouse, France;

    Laboratoire Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement, Institut National Polytechique, Universite Paul Sabatier, Universite de Toulouse, 31062 Toulouse,France,Laboratoire Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, 31062 Toulouse, France;

    Tel! Leilan Project and School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
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