...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America >Nonlinear effect of climate on plague during the third pandemic in China
【24h】

Nonlinear effect of climate on plague during the third pandemic in China

机译：第三次大流行期间气候对鼠疫的非线性影响

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Over the years, plague has caused a large number of deaths worldwide and subsequently changed history, not the least during the period of the Black Death. Of the three plague pandemics, the third is believed to have originated in China. Using the spatial and temporal human plague records in China from 1850 to 1964, we investigated the association of human plague intensity (plague cases per year) with proxy data on climate condition (specifically an index for dryness/wetness). Our modeling analysis demonstrates that the responses of plague intensity to dry/wet conditions were different in northern and southern China. In northern China, plague intensity generally increased when wetness increased, for both the current and the previous year, except for low intensity during extremely wet conditions in the current year (reflecting a dome-shaped response to current-year dryness/ wetness). In southern China, plague intensity generally decreased when wetness increased, except for high intensity during extremely wet conditions of the current year. These opposite effects are likely related to the different climates and rodent communities in the two parts of China: In northern China (arid climate), rodents are expected to respond positively to high precipitation, whereas in southern China (humid climate), high precipitation is likely to have a negative effect. Our results suggest that associations between human plague intensity and precipitation are nonlinear: positive in dry conditions, but negative in wet conditions.
机译：多年来，瘟疫已在全球造成大量死亡，随后改变了历史，尤其是在黑死病期间。在三场鼠疫大流行中，第三场被认为起源于中国。利用中国1850年至1964年的鼠疫时空记录，我们调查了人类鼠疫强度（每年鼠疫病例）与气候条件的代理数据（特别是干/湿指数）之间的关系。我们的模型分析表明，在中国北部和南部，鼠疫强度对干/湿条件的响应不同。在中国北方，本年度和上一年，当湿度增加时，鼠疫强度一般都会增加，除了当年极端潮湿的条件下鼠疫强度较低（反映了对当年干旱/湿度的圆顶状响应）。在中国南部，当湿度增加时，鼠疫强度通常会降低，除了当年极端潮湿的条件下鼠疫强度很高。这些相反的影响可能与中国两个地区的不同气候和啮齿动物群落有关：在中国北部（干旱气候），啮齿动物对高降水量有积极的响应，而在中国南部（潮湿气候），高降水量是可能会产生负面影响。我们的结果表明，人类瘟疫强度与降水之间的关系是非线性的：在干燥条件下为正，而在潮湿条件下为负。

著录项

  • 来源
  • 作者

    Lei Xu; Qiyong Liu; Leif Chr. Stige; Tamara Ben Ari; Xiye Fang; Kung-Sik Chan; Shuchun Wang; Nils Chr. Stenseth; Zhibin Zhang;

  • 作者单位

    State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management on Pest Insects and Rodents, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China ,Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;

    State Key Laboratory for Infectious Diseases Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China;

    Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biology, University of Oslo, Blindern,0316 Oslo, Norway;

    Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biology, University of Oslo, Blindern,0316 Oslo, Norway;

    National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206,China;

    Department of Statistics and Actuarial Sciences, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242;

    National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206,China;

    Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis, Department of Biology, University of Oslo, Blindern,0316 Oslo, Norway;

    State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management on Pest Insects and Rodents, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    climate variations; yersinia pestis; generalized additive modeling;

    机译：气候变化;鼠疫耶尔森菌;广义加性建模;

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号