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首页> 外文期刊>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America >Prediction Of A Rift Valley Fever Outbreak
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Prediction Of A Rift Valley Fever Outbreak

机译：裂谷热爆发的预测

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摘要

El Nino/Southern Oscillation related climate anomalies were analyzed by using a combination of satellite measurements of elevated sea-surface temperatures and subsequent elevated rainfall and satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index data. A Rift Valley fever (RVF) risk mapping model using these climate data predicted areas where outbreaks of RVF in humans and animals were expected and occurred in the Horn of Africa from December 2006 to May 2007. The predictions were subsequently confirmed by entomological and epidemiological field investigations of virus activity in the areas identified as at risk. Accurate spatial and temporal predictions of disease activity, as it occurred first in southern Somalia and then through much of Kenya before affecting northern Tanzania, provided a 2 to 6 week period of warning for the Horn of Africa that facilitated disease outbreak response and mitigation activities. To our knowledge, this is the first prospective prediction of a RVF outbreak.
机译：通过结合卫星测量的海平面升高的温度和随后的降雨增加以及卫星衍生的归一化差异植被指数数据，对与厄尔尼诺/南方涛动有关的气候异常进行了分析。使用这些气候数据的裂谷热（RVF）风险图模型预测了预计在2006年12月至2007年5月在非洲之角发生并在人类和动物中暴发RVF的地区。该预测随后得到昆虫学和流行病学领域的证实在确定为危险区域的病毒活动调查。疾病活动的准确时空预测（首先发生在索马里南部，然后穿过肯尼亚的大部分地区，然后影响坦桑尼亚北部），为非洲之角提供了2至6周的预警期，促进了疾病暴发应对和缓解活动。据我们所知，这是RVF爆发的第一个前瞻性预测。

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