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首页> 外文期刊>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America >The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change
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The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change

机译：21世纪气候变化模拟中极端降水增加的物理基础

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摘要

Global warming is expected to lead to a large increase in atmospheric water vapor content and to changes in the hydrological cycle, which include an intensification of precipitation extremes. The intensity of precipitation extremes is widely held to increase proportionately to the increase in atmospheric water vapor content. Here, we show that this is not the case in 21st-century climate change scenarios simulated with climate models. In the tropics, precipitation extremes are not simulated reliably and do not change consistently among climate models; in the extratropics, they consistently increase more slowly than atmospheric water vapor content. We give a physical basis for how precipitation extremes change with climate and show that their changes depend on changes in the moist-adiabatic temperature lapse rate, in the upward velocity, and in the temperature when precipitation extremes occur. For the tropics, the theory suggests that improving the simulation of upward velocities in climate models is essential for improving predictions of precipitation extremes; for the extra-tropics, agreement with theory and the consistency among climate models increase confidence in the robustness of predictions of precipitation extremes under climate change.
机译：预计全球变暖将导致大气中水汽含量的大量增加以及水文循环的变化，其中包括极端降水的加剧。极端降水的强度被广泛地认为与大气中水汽含量的增加成比例地增加。在这里，我们表明在用气候模型模拟的21世纪气候变化情景中并非如此。在热带地区，极端降水没有得到可靠的模拟，并且在不同的气候模式之间并不一致。在温带地区，它们的增加速度始终比大气中的水蒸气含量慢。我们提供了极端降水如何随气候变化的物理基础，并表明它们的变化取决于极端绝热发生时湿绝热温度下降速率，上升速度和温度的变化。对于热带地区，该理论认为，改善气候模型中向上速度的模拟对于改善极端降水的预报至关重要。对于温带热带地区，与理论的一致性以及气候模型之间的一致性提高了人们对气候变化下极端降水预测的鲁棒性的信心。

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