Long-term natural variability and 20th century climate change

Kyle L. Swanson; George Sugihara; Anastasios A. Tsonis

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Long-term natural variability and 20th century climate change

机译：长期自然变化与20世纪气候变化

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摘要

Global mean temperature at the Earth's surface responds both to externally imposed forcings, such as those arising from anthropogenic greenhouse gases, as well as to natural modes of variability internal to the climate system. Variability associated with these latter processes, generally referred to as natural long-term climate variability, arises primarily from changes in oceanic circulation. Here we present a technique that objectively identifies the component of inter-decadal global mean surface temperature attributable to natural long-term climate variability. Removal of that hidden variability from the actual observed global mean, surface temperature record delineates the externally forced climate signal, which is monotonic, accelerating warming during the 20th century.

机译：地球表面的全球平均温度对外部施加的强迫（例如由人为温室气体引起的强迫）以及气候系统内部自然变化的模式作出响应。与这些后期过程相关的变异性，通常称为自然长期气候变异性，主要来自海洋环流的变化。在这里，我们提出了一种技术，可以客观地确定年代际全球平均表面温度的组成部分，这可归因于自然长期的气候变化。从实际观测到的全球平均值中消除了这种隐含的变异性，地表温度记录描绘出了单调的外在强迫气候信号，从而加速了20世纪的变暖。

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《Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America》 |2009年第38期|16120-16123|共4页
作者
Kyle L. Swanson; George Sugihara; Anastasios A. Tsonis;
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作者单位

Atmospheric Sciences Group, Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Wl 53201;

Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093;

Atmospheric Sciences Group, Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Wl 53201;

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收录信息美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《生物学医学文摘》(MEDLINE);美国《化学文摘》(CA);
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类
关键词
climate modeling; ocean variability;

机译：气候模拟;海洋变率;

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6. Long-term natural variability and 20th century climate change [O] . Kyle L. Swanson, George Sugihara, Anastasios A. Tsonis 2009

机译：长期自然变化与20世纪气候变化
7. Long-term natural variability and 20th century climate change [O] . Swanson, Kyle L., Sugihara, George, Tsonis, Anastasios A. 2009

机译：长期自然变化与20世纪气候变化

Long-term natural variability and 20th century climate change

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