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首页> 外文期刊>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America >Distributions of observed death tolls govern sensitivity to human fatalities
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Distributions of observed death tolls govern sensitivity to human fatalities

机译：观察到的死亡人数分布决定了对人类死亡的敏感性

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摘要

How we react to humanitarian crises, epidemics, and other tragic events involving the loss of human lives depends largely on the extent to which we are moved by the size of their associated death tolls. Many studies have demonstrated that people generally exhibit a diminishing sensitivity to the number of human fatalities and, equivalently, a preference for risky (vs. sure) alternatives in decisions under risk involving human losses. However, the reason for this tendency remains unknown. Here we show that the distributions of event-related death tolls that people observe govern their evaluations of, and risk preferences concerning, human fatalities. In particular, we show that our diminishing sensitivity to human fatalities follows from the fact that these death tolls are approximately power-law distributed. We further show that, by manipulating the distribution of mortality-related events that people observe, we can alter their risk preferences in decisions involving fatalities. Finally, we show that the tendency to be risk-seeking in mortality-related decisions is lower in countries in which high-mortality events are more frequently observed. Our results support a model of magnitude evaluation based on memory sampling and relative judgment. This model departs from the utility-based approaches typically encountered in psychology and economics in that it does not rely on stable, underlying value representations to explain valuation and choice, or on choice behavior to derive value functions. Instead, preferences concerning human fatalities emerge spontaneously from the distributions of sampled events and the relative nature of the evaluation process.
机译：我们如何应对人道主义危机，流行病和其他涉及人员伤亡的悲剧性事件，在很大程度上取决于我们因其相关死亡人数而受到的影响。许多研究表明，人们对死亡人数的敏感性通常降低，并且在涉及人员伤亡风险的决策中，人们倾向于选择具有风险（相对于肯定）的替代方案。但是，这种趋势的原因仍然未知。在这里，我们表明人们观察到的与事件相关的死亡人数的分布控制着他们对人类死亡的评估以及与人类死亡有关的风险偏好。特别是，我们表明，我们对人类死亡的敏感度不断降低，是由于这些死亡人数大约是幂律分布的事实。我们进一步表明，通过操纵人们观察到的与死亡相关的事件的分布，我们可以在涉及死亡的决策中改变他们的风险偏好。最后，我们表明，在死亡率较高的决策中，寻求风险的趋势在那些经常观察到高死亡率事件的国家中较低。我们的结果支持基于内存采样和相对判断的量级评估模型。该模型与心理学和经济学中常见的基于效用的方法不同，因为它不依赖于稳定的基础价值表示来解释估值和选择，也不依赖于选择行为来推导价值函数。取而代之的是，有关人员死亡的偏好会自动从采样事件的分布和评估过程的相对性质中得出。

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