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首页> 外文期刊>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America >Global cost estimates of reducing carbon emissions through avoided deforestation
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Global cost estimates of reducing carbon emissions through avoided deforestation

机译：通过避免毁林减少碳排放的全球成本估算

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摘要

Tropical deforestation is estimated to cause about one-quarter of anthropogenic carbon emissions, loss of biodiversity, and other environmental services. United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change talks are now considering mechanisms for avoiding deforestation (AD), but the economic potential of AD has yet to be addressed. We use three economic models of global land use and management to analyze the potential contribution of AD activities to reduced greenhouse gas emissions. AD activities are found to be a competitive, low-cost abatement option. A program providing a 10% reduction in deforestation from 2005 to 2030 could provide 0.3-0.6 Gt (1 Gt = 1 × 10~5 g) CO_2·yr~(-1) in emission reductions and would require $0.4 billion to $1.7 billion·yr~(-1) for 30 years. A 50% reduction in deforestation from 2005 to 2030 could provide 1.5-2.7 Gt CO_2·yr~(-1) in emission reductions and would require $17.2 billion to $28.0 billion·yr~(-1). Finally, some caveats to the analysis that could increase costs of AD programs are described.
机译：据估计，热带森林砍伐造成约四分之一的人为碳排放，生物多样性丧失和其他环境服务。联合国气候变化框架公约谈判目前正在考虑避免森林砍伐的机制，但该机制的经济潜力尚未得到解决。我们使用全球土地使用和管理的三种经济模型来分析广告活动对减少温室气体排放的潜在贡献。发现反倾销活动是一种有竞争力的低成本减排选择。一个从2005年到2030年将森林砍伐减少10％的计划可以减少排放0.3-0.6 Gt（1 Gt = 1×10〜5 g）CO_2·yr〜（-1），需要4亿至17亿美元· yr〜（-1）30年。从2005年到2030年，森林砍伐减少50％可以减少1.5-2.7 Gt的CO_2·yr〜（-1），需要172亿美元到280亿美元·yr〜（-1）。最后，描述了一些可能增加AD程序成本的警告。

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