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首页> 外文期刊>Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America >Predicting the effects of climate change on avian life-history traits
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Predicting the effects of climate change on avian life-history traits

机译：预测气候变化对鸟类生活史特征的影响

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Across North America, tree swallows have advanced their mean date of clutch initiation (lay date) by ≈9 days over the past 30 years, apparently in response to climate change. In a sample of 2,881 nest records collected by the lay public from 1959 to 1991, we examined whether clutch size has also responded to climate change. We found that clutch size is strongly related to lay date, both within and among years, and there has been no significant temporal variation in the slopes or intercepts of the clutch-size/ lay-date regressions. As a consequence, we expected increases in clutch size with advancement in lay date; however, we detected no such trend over time. The distributions of egg-laying dates were more constricted in the warmest (and earliest) years, suggesting that changes in mean clutch size might be constrained by changes in the distribution of laying dates. If spring temperatures continue to increase, we predict further reductions of variance in laying dates and relatively small increases in clutch size. Such constraints on life-history variation probably are common and need to be considered when modeling the effects of climate change on reproduction in natural populations. Predicting the long-term effects of constraints and interpreting changes in life-history traits require a better understanding of both adaptive and demographic effects of climate change.
机译：在整个北美地区，树燕在过去30年中的平均离婚开始时间（产蛋日期）提前了大约9天，这显然是对气候变化的反应。在从1959年到1991年由非专业人士收集的2,881个巢记录的样本中，我们研究了离合器的大小是否也响应了气候变化。我们发现离合器的大小在几年之内和之间都与产蛋日期密切相关，并且离合器尺寸/产蛋日期回归的斜率或截距没有明显的时间变化。因此，我们预计离合器的尺寸会随着交货日期的增加而增加；但是，随着时间的推移，我们没有发现这种趋势。产蛋日期的分布在最暖（和最早）的年份更为狭窄，这表明产蛋日期分布的变化可能会限制平均离合大小的变化。如果弹簧温度持续升高，我们预计产蛋日期的差异会进一步减少，离合器尺寸也会相对较小。这种对生活史变化的限制可能很常见，并且在对气候变化对自然种群繁殖的影响进行建模时需要考虑。预测制约因素的长期影响并解释生活史特征的变化，需要对气候变化的适应性和人口性影响有更好的了解。

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