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Decision Making and Cognition in Multi-Echelon Supply Chains: An Experimental Study

机译：多级供应链中的决策与认知：一项实验研究

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摘要

Supply chain performance often depends on the individual decisions of channel members. Even when individuals have access to relevant information, order variation tends to increase when moving up the supply chain, a phenomenon known as the bullwhip effect. While prior research has investigated several structural/environmental factors which can mitigate the bullwhip effect, the underlying behavioral factors contributing to it are an open question. Using a production and distribution decision-making simulation representing a four-stage serial supply chain, we find that the cognitive profile of decision makers contributes to the bullwhip effect. We found that the specific decision tendency to underweight the supply line is linked to an individual's level of cognitive reflection. Furthermore, performance differs for entire supply chains and for specific echelons, and holds under standard mitigation efforts. The findings have implications for supply chain design, education, and industry.
机译：供应链绩效通常取决于渠道成员的个人决策。即使个人可以访问相关信息，在向上移动供应链时，订单变化也趋于增加，这种现象被称为牛鞭效应。尽管先前的研究已经研究了一些可以减轻牛鞭效应的结构/环境因素，但促成牛鞭效应的潜在行为因素却是一个悬而未决的问题。使用代表四个阶段的连续供应链的生产和分销决策模拟，我们发现决策者的认知特征有助于牛鞭效应。我们发现，降低供应线权重的特定决策趋势与个人的认知反射水平有关。此外，整个供应链和特定梯队的绩效也有所不同，并且在标准缓解措施下保持不变。这些发现对供应链设计，教育和行业都有影响。

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