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A review of unmanned aircraft system ground risk models

机译：无人机系统地面风险模型综述

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摘要

There is much effort being directed towards the development of safety regulations for unmanned aircraft systems (UAS). National airworthiness authorities have advocated the adoption of a risk-based approach, whereby regulations are driven by the outcomes,of a systematic process to assess and manage identified safety risks. Subsequently, models characterising the primary hazards associated with UAS operations have now become critical to the development of regulations and in turn, to the future of the industry. Key to the development of airworthiness regulations for UAS is a comprehensive understanding of the risks UAS operations pose to people and property on the ground. A comprehensive review of the literature identified 33 different models (and component sub models) used to estimate ground risk posed by UAS. These models comprise failure, impact location, recovery, stress, exposure, incident stress and harm sub-models. The underlying assumptions and treatment of uncertainties in each of these sub-models differ significantly between models, which can have a significant impact on the development of regulations. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art in research into UAS ground risk modelling, discusses how the various sub-models relate to the different components of the regulation, and explores how model-uncertainties potentially impact the development of regulations for UAS.
机译：人们致力于开发无人飞机系统（UAS）的安全规定。国家适航当局提倡采用基于风险的方法，即法规是由评估和管理已识别安全风险的系统过程的结果驱动的。随后，表征与UAS操作相关的主要危害的模型现在对于法规的制定（进而对行业的未来）变得至关重要。制定UAS适航性法规的关键是全面了解UAS运营给当地人员和财产带来的风险。对文献的全面回顾确定了33种不同的模型（和子组件模型），这些模型用于估计UAS带来的地面风险。这些模型包括失效，冲击位置，恢复，应力，暴露，入射应力和伤害子模型。每个子模型中的不确定性的基本假设和处理方式在模型之间存在显着差异，这可能会对法规的制定产生重大影响。本文回顾了UAS地面风险建模研究的最新进展，讨论了各种子模型如何与法规的不同组成部分相关，并探讨了模型不确定性如何可能影响UAS法规的制定。

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