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首页> 外文期刊>Pure and Applied Geophysics >An Independent Assessment of the Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Proposed Method of Earthquake Prediction
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An Independent Assessment of the Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) Proposed Method of Earthquake Prediction

机译：独立评估建议的载荷/载荷响应比（LURR）方法

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The Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is a proposed technique to predict earthquakes that was first put forward by Yin (1987). LURR is based on the idea that when an area enters the damage regime, the rate of seismic activity during loading of the tidal cycle increases relative to the rate of seismic activity during unloading in the months to one year preceding a large earthquake. Since earth tides generally contribute the largest temporal variations in crustal stress, it seems plausible that earth tides would trigger earthquakes in areas that are close to failure (e.g., Vidale et al., 1998). However, the vast majority of studies have shown that earth tides do not trigger earthquakes (e.g., Vidale et al., 1998; Heaton, 1982; Rydelek et al., 1992). In this study, we conduct an independent test of the LURR method, since there would be important scientific and social implications if it were proven to be a robust method of earthquake prediction. Smith and Sammis (2004) undertook a similar study and found no evidence that there was predictive significance to the LURR method. We have repeated calculations of LURR for the Northridge earthquake in California, following both the parameters of X.C. Yin (personal communication) and the somewhat different ones of Smith and Sammis (2004). Though we have followed both sets of parameters closely, we have been unable to reproduce either set of results. Our examinations have shown that the LURR method is very sensitive to certain parameters. Thus it seems likely that the discrepancies between our results and those of previous studies are due to unaccounted for differences in the calculation parameters. A general agreement was made at the 2004 ACES Workshop in China between research groups studying LURR to work cooperatively to resolve the differences in methods and results, and thus permit more definitive conclusions on the potential usefulness of the LURR method in earthquake prediction.
机译：加载/卸载响应比（LURR）方法是由Yin（1987）首次提出的一种预测地震的技术。 LURR基于这样的思想：当区域进入破坏状态时，在大地震发生前的几个月至一年中，潮汐周期加载期间的地震活动速率相对于卸载过程中的地震活动速率会增加。由于潮汐通常是造成地壳应力最大的时间变化，因此在接近破坏的地区潮汐会引发地震似乎是合理的（例如Vidale等，1998）。但是，绝大多数研究表明，潮汐不会引发地震（例如，Vidale等，1998； Heathon，1982； Rydelek等，1992）。在这项研究中，我们对LURR方法进行了独立测试，因为如果证明它是可靠的地震预测方法，将会有重要的科学和社会意义。 Smith和Sammis（2004）进行了类似的研究，没有发现任何证据表明LURR方法具有预测意义。根据X.C.的两个参数，我们已经重复计算了加利福尼亚北岭地震的LURR。 Yin（个人交流）和Smith和Sammis（2004）稍有不同。尽管我们密切关注两组参数，但是我们无法重现两组结果。我们的检查表明，LURR方法对某些参数非常敏感。因此，我们的结果与先前研究之间的差异似乎可能是由于未考虑计算参数的差异所致。在2004年ACES中国研讨会上，研究LURR的研究小组达成了一项总体协议，以合作解决方法和结果上的差异，从而就LURR方法在地震预测中的潜在实用性提供更明确的结论。

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