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首页> 外文期刊>Pure and Applied Geophysics >Multifractal and Chaotic Analysis of Vrancea (Romania) Intermediate-depth Earthquakes: Investigation of the Temporal Distribution of Events
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Multifractal and Chaotic Analysis of Vrancea (Romania) Intermediate-depth Earthquakes: Investigation of the Temporal Distribution of Events

机译：瓦朗塞（罗马尼亚）中深度地震的多重分形和混沌分析：事件时间分布的调查

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摘要

The Vrancea seismic region contains an isolated cluster of events beneath the Carpathian Arc Bend in Romania, dipping to about 200 km depth. Seismic activity mainly occurs at intermediate depths (h > 60 km). The main goal of the paper is to perform an in-depth, complex analysis of the occurrence times of these intermediate-depth events. We also try to show the versatility of the methods used to characterize different aspects of the seismicity evolution and to offer a user-friendly software toolbox to do most of the related computations. The earthquake catalog used in this study spans from 1974 to 2002 and includes only the intermediate-depth events. In the first part of the paper, we analyze the multifractal characteristics of the temporal distribution of earthquakes. The study reveals two distinct scaling regimes. At small scales we found a clear nonhomogeneous, multifractal pattern, while at large scales the temporal distribution of events shows a monofractal, and close to Poissonian (random), behavior. The multifractal behavior at small scales (minutes-hours) is shown to be clearly an effect of the “short” aftershock sequences that occurred after some major Vrancea earthquakes. In the second part of the paper we analyze whether our temporal series shows a persistent (or anti-persistent) long-term behavior, by using the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) method. The results suggest that the analyzed temporal series of Vrancea earthquakes is a non-correlated process. In part three of the paper we seek to determine whether the dynamics of our earthquake system (described by the occurrence time of Vrancea earthquakes) is deterministically chaotic, deriving from a rather simple evolution law, or whether it is stochastic and is generated by a system that possesses many degrees of freedom. The results suggest that our signal is stochastic (probably does not possess an attractor). The limited time-span of the catalog and the analysis performed in this paper cannot rule out the emergence of an interesting, quasi-deterministic and low-dimensional structure in the case of major Vrancea earthquakes.
机译：Vrancea地震区在罗马尼亚的喀尔巴阡弧形弯下包含一个孤立的事件群，深度约200公里。地震活动主要发生在中间深度（h> 60 km）。本文的主要目的是对这些中间深度事件的发生时间进行深入，复杂的分析。我们还试图说明用于表征地震活动演化各个方面的方法的多功能性，并提供用户友好的软件工具箱来执行大多数相关计算。本研究中使用的地震目录跨度为1974年至2002年，仅包括中深度事件。在本文的第一部分，我们分析了地震时间分布的多重分形特征。该研究揭示了两种不同的缩放方式。在小范围内，我们发现了清晰的非均质多重分形模式，而在大范围内，事件的时间分布显示了单分形，并且接近泊松（随机）行为。小规模（分钟-小时）的多重分形行为显然表明是在某些重大弗朗塞地震后发生的“短”余震序列的影响。在本文的第二部分中，我们使用去趋势波动分析（DFA）方法分析了我们的时间序列是否显示出持久（或反持久）的长期行为。结果表明，所分析的Vrancea地震时间序列是一个不相关的过程。在本文的第三部分中，我们试图确定地震系统的动力学（由Vrancea地震的发生时间来描述）是否是确定性的，源自一个相当简单的演化定律的混沌，还是它是随机的并且是由系统生成的具有许多自由度。结果表明我们的信号是随机的（可能没有吸引子）。目录的时间跨度有限，本文无法进行分析，这不能排除在发生重大Vrancea地震时出现有趣的，准确定的低维结构的情况。

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