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首页> 外文期刊>The quarterly review of economics and finance >A real options approach to valuing and negotiating licensing agreements
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A real options approach to valuing and negotiating licensing agreements

机译：评估和谈判许可协议的实物期权方法

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We apply real options modeling to a common pharmaceutical industry licensing arrangement to take into account various uncertainties and the flexibility value. The managerial flexibility is limited to the project abandonment option. We extend previous work by incorporating the phases required to bring the project from patent approval to market. We also incorporate a deterministic variable into the cash flow process that provides a realistic product lifecycle. We focus on the allocation of project value between licensor and licensee, i.e., the so-called "profit split" ratio (PSR) because it is commonly used in practice to negotiate terms. We find: (1) Ignoring the managerial flexibility in valuation may cause the licensee to either forego an acceptable deal or enter into an inferior deal. (2) The magnitude of project profitability as well as cost and sales uncertainty affects the licensor's bargaining power over compensation for granting abandonment flexibility to the licensee. (3) Managers must exercise care when estimating sales volatility because the flexibility value is more sensitive to sales volatility than it is to cost volatility. (4) Failure to incorporate the product lifecycle will produce suboptimal capital investment decisions.
机译：我们将实物期权模型应用于通用制药行业许可安排，以考虑各种不确定性和灵活性价值。管理灵活性仅限于项目放弃选项。我们通过合并使项目从专利批准进入市场所需的阶段来扩展以前的工作。我们还将确定性变量整合到现金流过程中，以提供真实的产品生命周期。我们专注于许可方和被许可方之间的项目价值分配，即所谓的“利润分配”比率（PSR），因为在实践中通常使用它来协商条款。我们发现：（1）忽略评估中的管理灵活性可能会导致被许可人放弃可接受的交易或进行次等交易。 （2）项目获利能力的大小以及成本和销售的不确定性影响许可人就授予被许可人放弃灵活性的补偿能力。 （3）经理在估计销售波动时必须谨慎，因为灵活性值对销售波动比对成本波动更敏感。 （4）无法纳入产品生命周期将导致次优的资本投资决策。

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