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Spatiotemporal trends of area burnt in the Iberian Peninsula, 1975-2013

机译：1975-2013年伊比利亚半岛面积烧毁的时空趋势

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摘要

In Portugal and Spain, fire regimes have been significantly altered due to changes in anthropogenic and climatic factors. The development of a fire management strategy should take into account the past trends of fire incidence. We analyse the spatial and temporal trends of burned area in the Iberian Peninsula, merging four decades of forest fire data from the two countries. Theil-Sen slope and a spatial version of Mann-Kendall test are used to test the significance of trends. Excluding some small cases, all significant clusters in Spain correspond to regions of decreasing trends of burnt area. Portugal exhibits contrasting trends, with a large cluster of increasing trend of burnt area in the northwestern part of the country and a large cluster of decreasing trend in central Portugal. A regression analysis performed between the burnt area and the Daily Severity Rating (DSR), a measure of fire suppression difficulty, for the largest significant clusters reveals that climatic factors explain only in part the burnt area trends. Anthropogenic factors also play an important role. In northwestern Spain, fire suppression has contributed to a decreasing trend of burnt area even if the area of forest and the population has increased in the last decades. In central Portugal, the decreasing trend in burnt area is mostly related to the population decrease and the rural abandonment. Regarding northwestern Portugal, it is a region where agriculture is the dominant land cover type and the urban area doubled since 1990. This is indicative of an extending urban-rural interface, which contributes to an increase in fire incidence.
机译：在葡萄牙和西班牙，由于人为和气候因素的变化，火灾情况已经发生了重大变化。制定火灾管理策略时应考虑到过去发生火灾的趋势。我们结合了来自两国的四十年森林火灾数据，分析了伊比利亚半岛燃烧面积的时空趋势。 Theil-Sen斜率和Mann-Kendall检验的空间版本用于检验趋势的重要性。除一些小案例外，西班牙所有重要的星团都对应于燃烧面积下降趋势的区域。葡萄牙呈现出截然相反的趋势，该国西北部有大量的燃烧面积增加趋势，而葡萄牙中部有大量的减少趋势。在燃烧面积和最大烈度集群的每日烈度等级（DSR）之间进行的回归分析（衡量灭火难度的标准）显示，气候因素仅部分解释了燃烧面积的趋势。人为因素也起重要作用。在西班牙西北部，即使近几十年来森林面积和人口增加，灭火也导致了烧毁面积的减少。在葡萄牙中部，烧毁面积的减少趋势主要与人口减少和农村遗弃有关。关于葡萄牙西北部，该地区是农业占主导地位的土地覆盖类型，自1990年以来，城市面积增加了一倍。这表明城乡联系不断扩大，这导致火灾发生率增加。

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