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Changing impacts and societal responses to drought in southwestern Germany since 1800

机译:自1800年以来德国西南部不断变化的干旱影响和社会应对措施

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摘要

Drought directly and indirectly affects the entire socio-economic and environmental sectors in southwestern Germany. Such impacts are a result of the drought hazard and an underlying vulnerability of the systems. With respect to climate change and the dynamics of vulnerability over time, it becomes crucial to investigate the preceding components, in order to understand possible future magnitudes of the hazard and drivers of drought impacts. Therefore, drought indices were generated from the early nineteenth century in order to identify exceptional meteorological summer droughts. Documentary evidence and historical yield statistics were used to contextualise historical drought events by drought impacts and responses. Considering both, selected summer drought events were analysed and mutually compared based on the impact on society and ecology, as well as societal responses to these. The derived standardised indices highlight differences between severe droughts in duration and temporal peculiarity and put into perspective the current understanding of the intensity of recent drought hazards. The discourse analysis reveals that the propagation of drought and the kinds of impacts have remained rather similar through time, only shifting to modern livelihood assets. However, vulnerability, which strongly depends on the societal contexts, has changed over time and lowered severity of impacts, especially with regard to food and water supply, as well as human health.
机译:干旱直接或间接影响德国西南部的整个社会经济和环境部门。这种影响是干旱危害和系统潜在脆弱性的结果。关于气候变化和脆弱性随时间的变化,至关重要的是研究前面的组成部分,以了解将来可能产生的危害程度和干旱影响的驱动因素。因此,为了确定异常的夏季气象干旱,从19世纪初开始产生干旱指数。文献证据和历史单产统计数据用于通过干旱影响和应对来将历史干旱事件背景化。考虑到这两者,根据对社会和生态的影响以及社会对这些事件的响应,对选定的夏季干旱事件进行了分析和相互比较。得出的标准化指数突显了持续时间和时间上的严重干旱之间的差异,并将当前对近期干旱危害强度的了解纳入了透视。话语分析表明,随着时间的流逝,干旱的蔓延和影响的种类保持了相当相似,只是转移到了现代民生资产上。但是,脆弱性在很大程度上取决于社会环境,并且随着时间的流逝而发生了变化,影响的严重性降低了,特别是在粮食和水的供应以及人类健康方面。

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