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首页> 外文期刊>Regional Environmental Change >The socio-economic vulnerability of the Australian east coast grazing sector to the impacts of climate change
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The socio-economic vulnerability of the Australian east coast grazing sector to the impacts of climate change

机译：澳大利亚东海岸放牧业对气候变化影响的社会经济脆弱性

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Research that projects biophysical changes under climate change is more advanced than research that projects socio-economic changes. There is a need in adaptation planning for informed socio-economic projections as well as analysis of how these changes may exacerbate or reduce vulnerability. Our focus in this paper is on the delivery of time-sensitive socio-economic information that can better support anticipatory adaptation planning approaches. Using a ‘multiple lines of evidence’ approach based on Australian Bureau of Statistics’ data (2010/2011), we examine the socio-economic vulnerability of the grazing sector located on Australia’s east coast. We profile the east coast grazing sector through an overview of the composition of its workforce and the value of grazing commodities produced. We then assess the potential vulnerability of the grazing sector using spatial snapshots of five factors known to shape socio-economic vulnerability in New South Wales and Queensland: (1) reliance on agriculture, (2) geographic remoteness, (3) socio-economic disadvantage, (4) economic diversity and (5) age. Our assessment of the east coast grazing sector reveals six subregions characterised by high potential socio-economic vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. We find high percentages of labour forces employed in agriculture, geographic remoteness and age (high percentages of owner/managers and employees in younger age groups) to be drivers of vulnerability. Finally, we evaluate the ways in which these vulnerabilities may be exacerbated or reduced in light of emerging environmental, economic and social trends. This approach complements demographic projection methods to deliver time-sensitive socio-economic information to support anticipatory adaptation planning.
机译：预测气候变化下生物物理变化的研究比预测社会经济变化的研究更先进。在适应计划中需要有知情的社会经济预测以及对这些变化如何加剧或减少脆弱性的分析。本文的重点是提供对时间敏感的社会经济信息，这些信息可以更好地支持预期的适应性计划方法。我们使用基于澳大利亚统计局（2010/2011）数据的“多种证据”方法，研究了位于澳大利亚东海岸的放牧部门的社会经济脆弱性。我们通过概述其劳动力组成和所生产的放牧商品的价值来概述东海岸的放牧业。然后，我们使用五个已知可塑造新南威尔士州和昆士兰州社会经济脆弱性的因素的空间快照，评估放牧业的潜在脆弱性：（1）对农业的依赖，（2）地理偏远，（3）社会经济劣势，（4）经济多样性和（5）年龄。我们对东海岸放牧业的评估揭示了六个次区域，其特点是潜在的社会经济脆弱性对气候变化的影响。我们发现，从事农业，地理偏远地区和年龄的劳动力比例很高（年轻年龄组的所有者/经理和雇员比例很高）是造成脆弱性的原因。最后，根据新兴的环境，经济和社会趋势，我们评估了加剧或减少这些漏洞的方式。这种方法补充了人口预测方法，可提供对时间敏感的社会经济信息，以支持预期的适应性计划。

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