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首页> 外文期刊>Regional Environmental Change >Protein futures for Western Europe: potential land use and climate impacts in 2050
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Protein futures for Western Europe: potential land use and climate impacts in 2050

机译：西欧的蛋白质期货：2050年潜在的土地利用和气候影响

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摘要

Multiple production and demand side measures are needed to improve food system sustainability. This study quantified the theoretical minimum agricultural land requirements to supply Western Europe with food in 2050 from its own land base, together with GHG emissions arising. Assuming that crop yield gaps in agriculture are closed, livestock production efficiencies increased and waste at all stages reduced, a range of food consumption scenarios were modelled each based on different 'protein futures'. The scenarios were as follows: intensive and efficient livestock production using today's species mix; intensive efficient poultry-dairy production; intensive efficient aquaculture-dairy; artificial meat and dairy; livestock on 'ecological leftovers' (livestock reared only on land unsuited to cropping, agricultural residues and food waste, with consumption capped at that level of availability); and a 'plant-based eating' scenario. For each scenario, 'projected diet' and 'healthy diet' variants were modelled. Finally, we quantified the theoretical maximum carbon sequestration potential from afforestation of spared agricultural land. Results indicate that land use could be cut by 14-86 % and GHG emissions reduced by up to approximately 90 %. The yearly carbon storage potential arising from spared agricultural land ranged from 90 to 700 Mt CO2 in 2050. The artificial meat and plant-based scenarios achieved the greatest land use and GHG reductions and the greatest carbon sequestration potential. The 'ecological leftover' scenario required the least cropland as compared with the other meat-containing scenarios, but all available pasture was used, and GHG emissions were higher if meat consumption was not capped at healthy levels.
机译：需要采取多种生产和需求方面的措施来改善粮食系统的可持续性。这项研究量化了理论上的最低农业用地需求，以在2050年从其自身的土地基础上为西欧提供食物，并同时增加了温室气体的排放量。假设缩小了农业中的农作物产量差距，提高了牲畜生产效率，减少了各个阶段的浪费，则根据不同的“蛋白质期货”对各种粮食消费情景进行了建模。情景如下：利用当今的物种组合进行集约化和高效的畜牧生产；集约化高效的禽畜生产；集约型高效水产养殖场;人造肉和奶制品； “生态剩菜”上的牲畜（仅在不适合种植作物，农业残留物和食物垃圾的土地上饲养牲畜，其消费上限限制在该水平）；以及“基于植物的饮食”场景。对于每种情况，都对“预计饮食”和“健康饮食”变体进行了建模。最后，我们量化了剩余农业用地造林的理论最大固碳潜力。结果表明，土地使用量可减少14-86％，温室气体排放量最多可减少90％。到2050年，闲置的农业用地每年产生的碳储存潜力为90至700 Mt CO2。以人造肉和植物为基础的情景实现了最大的土地利用和温室气体减少量以及最大的碳固存潜力。与其他包含肉类的情景相比，“生态剩菜”情景所需的耕地最少，但使用了所有可用的牧场，如果不将肉类消费限制在健康水平，则温室气体排放会更高。

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  • 来源
    《Regional Environmental Change》 |2017年第2期|367-377|共11页
  • 作者

    Roos Elin; Bajzelj Bojana; Smith Pete; Patel Mikaela; Little David; Garnett Tara;

  • 作者单位

    Univ Oxford, Food Climate Res Network, Environm Change Inst, S Parks Rd, Oxford OX1 3PS, England;

    Univ Cambridge, Dept Engn, Cambridge, England;

    Univ Aberdeen, Inst Biol & Environm Sci, Aberdeen, Scotland|Univ Aberdeen, ClimateXChange, Aberdeen, Scotland;

    Swedish Univ Agr Sci, Dept Anim Nutr & Management, Uppsala, Sweden;

    Univ Stirling, Inst Aquaculture, Stirling, Scotland;

    Univ Oxford, Food Climate Res Network, Environm Change Inst, S Parks Rd, Oxford OX1 3PS, England;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Land use; Climate; Food; Dietary change; Mitigation; Protein;

    机译：土地利用;气候;食物;饮食变化;缓解;蛋白质;

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