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Impacts of climate change and urban growth on the streamflow of the Milwaukee River (Wisconsin, USA)

机译：气候变化和城市发展对密尔沃基河水流的影响（美国威斯康星州）

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Hydrological impact studies of climate change increasingly take land use changes into account. However, the Midwestern USA is still understudied in this context. This study investigated the impacts of potential climate change and urban growth on the streamflow characteristics of the Milwaukee River located in southeastern Wisconsin. The Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) was set up for the catchment and calibrated against observed streamflow data. The calibrated HSPF model was run with a series of climate and urban growth scenarios generated from nine global climate models (GCMs) and a land use simulation model, respectively. The outcomes from the GCMs, statistically downscaled at 10-km grid spacing, generally indicated a warmer and wetter climate by the mid-twenty-first century, and the land use simulation model projected moderate urban growth by the time. Major findings from the study include: (1) land use changes alone resulted in negligible streamflow changes; (2) low flows showed more sensitivity than mean streamflow to climate change; (3) streamflow variability increased with both land use and climate changes, and (4) uncertainty in simulated streamflow among GCMs was larger than uncertainty among the GCM output themselves. The findings suggest that the current pace of urban growth would not pose much threat to the water resources in the area. Considering that low flow indices responded more sensitively than mean streamflow to climate change, measures to improve resilience to drought conditions are recommended. Because land use change impacts were quite small, considering the impact of both climate and land use scenarios did not produce a significantly different result.
机译：气候变化的水文影响研究越来越多地考虑到土地利用变化。但是，在这种情况下，美国中西部地区仍未得到充分研究。这项研究调查了潜在的气候变化和城市发展对位于威斯康星州东南部的密尔沃基河的水流特征的影响。针对流域建立了Fortran水文模拟程序（HSPF），并根据观测到的流量数据进行了校准。校准的HSPF模型是根据分别由9个全球气候模型（GCM）和土地利用模拟模型生成的一系列气候和城市增长情景运行的。 GCM的结果在10公里的网格间距上进行了统计缩减，通常表明到21世纪中叶气候变暖和变湿，土地利用模拟模型预测到那时城市将适度增长。该研究的主要发现包括：（1）仅土地利用变化导致的流量变化可忽略不计； （2）低流量比平均流量对气候变化的敏感性更高； （3）流量变化随土地利用和气候变化而增加，（4）GCM之间模拟流量的不确定性大于GCM输出本身之间的不确定性。调查结果表明，当前的城市增长速度不会对该地区的水资源构成太大威胁。考虑到低流量指数比平均流量对气候变化的响应更为敏感，因此建议采取措施来提高对干旱条件的抵御能力。由于土地使用变化的影响很小，因此考虑气候和土地使用情景的影响并不会产生明显不同的结果。

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