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Impacts of changing climate and snow cover on the flow regime of Jhelum River, Western Himalayas

机译：气候和积雪的变化对喜马拉雅山西部杰赫勒姆河水流状况的影响

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This study examines the change in climate variables and snow cover dynamics and their impact on the hydrological regime of the Jhelum River basin in Western Himalayas. This study utilized daily streamflow records from Mangla dam, spanning a time period of 19 years (1995-2013), along with precipitation and temperature data over 52 years (1961-2013) from 12 different climate stations in the catchment. Additionally, moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) remote sensing product MOD10A2 was utilized to analyze the change in snow cover dynamics during 2000-2013. The Pearson and Kendall rank correlation tests were used to scrutinize snow cover trends and correlation between temperature, precipitation, snow cover area (SCA) and streamflows records. Basin-wide trend analysis showed a slightly increasing tendency in temperature (tau = 0.098) and precipitation (tau = 0.094), during the years 1961-2013. The changes in streamflow indicated a positive (r > 0.12) relationship with respect to temperature but variable trends (r = -0.45-0.41) with respect to precipitation during both the winter and monsoon seasons. This indicates that temperature has a significant impact on the hydrological regime of the basin. MODIS data-based investigations suggested an expansion in SCA during 2000-2013. The changes in SCA of highaltitude zones (> 2000 m a.s.l.) depicted a stronger positive correlation with climate variables and streamflow compared with those obtained for low-altitude regions (< 2000 m a.s.l.). Overall, these results signify that highaltitude areas contribute to the streamflow largely in the form of snow-and glacier-melt during the early summer season. The streamflow is then further augmented by monsoon rainfall in the low-elevation regions during late summer.
机译：这项研究调查了喜马拉雅西部杰勒姆河流域的气候变量和积雪动态变化及其对水文状况的影响。这项研究利用了Mangla大坝的19天（1995-2013年）的每日流量记录以及该流域12个不同气候站52年（1961-2013年）的降水和温度数据。此外，中分辨率成像光谱仪（MODIS）遥感产品MOD10A2用于分析2000-2013年期间积雪动力学的变化。使用Pearson和Kendall秩相关检验来检查积雪趋势以及温度，降水量，积雪面积（SCA）和水流记录之间的相关性。全流域趋势分析显示，1961-2013年期间温度（tau = 0.098）和降水（tau = 0.094）略有增加。在冬季和季风季节，水流的变化与温度呈正相关（r> 0.12），而与降水呈变化趋势（r = -0.45-0.41）。这表明温度对流域的水文状况有重大影响。基于MODIS数据的调查表明，SCA在2000-2013年期间有所扩展。与在低海拔地区（<2000 m a.s.l.）获得的那些相比，高海拔地区（> 2000 m a.s.l.）的SCA的变化与气候变量和水流具有更强的正相关性。总体而言，这些结果表明，在初夏期间，高海拔地区主要以积雪和冰川融化的形式贡献了水流。然后，夏季末低海拔地区的季风降雨进一步增加了流量。

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