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首页> 外文期刊>Regional Environmental Change >Mapping fire behaviour under changing climate in a Mediterranean landscape in Greece
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Mapping fire behaviour under changing climate in a Mediterranean landscape in Greece

机译：绘制希腊地中海景观中气候变化下的火灾行为图

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Understanding how future climate periods influence fire behaviour is important for organizing fire suppression strategy and management . The meteorological factors are the most critical parameters affecting fire behaviour in natural landscapes; hence, predicting climate change effects on fire behaviour could be an option for optimizing firefighting resource management. In this study, we assessed climate change impacts on fire behaviour parameters (rate of fire growth, rate of spread and fireline intensity) for a typical Mediterranean landscape of Greece. We applied the minimum travel time fire simulation algorithm by using the FlamMap software to characterize potential response of fire behaviour for three summer periods. The results consisted of simulated spatially explicit fire behaviour parameters of the present climate (2000) and three future summer periods of 2050, 2070 and 2100, under the A1B emissions scenario. Statistical significant differences in simulation outputs among the four examined periods were obtained by using the Tukey's significance test. Statistical significant differences were mainly obtained for 2100 compared to the present climate due to the significant projected increase in the wind speed by the end of the century. The analysis and the conclusions of the study can be important inputs for fire suppression strategy and fire management (deployment of fire suppression resources, firefighter safety and exposure, transportation logistics) quantifying the effect that the expected future climate periods can have on fire suppression difficulty in Mediterranean landscapes.
机译：了解未来气候时期如何影响着火行为对于组织灭火策略和管理很重要。气象因素是影响自然景观中火灾行为的最关键参数。因此，预测气候变化对火灾行为的影响可能是优化消防资源管理的一种选择。在这项研究中，我们评估了希腊典型地中海景观的气候变化对火灾行为参数（火灾增长率，蔓延速率和火线强度）的影响。通过使用FlamMap软件，我们应用了最小行程时间火灾模拟算法来表征三个夏季火灾行为的潜在响应。结果包括在A1B排放情景下，模拟当前气候（2000年）和未来三个夏季期2050、2070和2100的模拟空间明火行为参数。通过使用Tukey的显着性检验获得了四个检验周期之间模拟输出的统计显着差异。由于当前预计到本世纪末风速将显着增加，因此与目前的气候相比，主要针对2100年获得了统计上的显着差异。研究的分析和结论可以为灭火战略和消防管理（部署灭火资源，消防员安全和暴露，运输后勤）提供重要的投入，量化预期的未来气候周期对灭火难度的影响。地中海风景。

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