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Climate change and economic consequences for inland waterway transport in Europe

机译：气候变化及其对欧洲内陆水路运输的经济影响

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摘要

Future climate conditions are likely to affect inland waterway transport in Europe. According to some climate scenarios, in summer, in the river Rhine, periods with low water levels are likely to occur more often and become more serious. Then inland waterway transport carriers will experience more severe restrictions on the load factor of their inland ships, which implies a stronger reduction in transport capacity in the market. Transport prices will rise under such conditions. Some studies reviewed in this paper find that at extremely low water levels, the price per tonne for inland waterway transport in the river Rhine area will almost double. These increased transport prices result in welfare losses. For the dry summer in 2003, the losses for North West Europe are estimated to sum up to around €480 million. Increased transport prices trigger adaptation. Inland waterway carriers may use smaller vessels, and shippers have the opportunity to shift from inland waterway transport to alternative transport modes in periods with low water levels. This effect is probably rather modest, however, with a modal shift to road and rail smaller than 10 %. Also, changes in transport costs may lead to relocation of certain economic activities in the long run.
机译：未来的气候条件可能会影响欧洲的内陆水路运输。根据某些气候情景，夏季，莱茵河中的水位较低时期可能会更频繁地发生并变得更加严重。然后，内陆水路运输承运人将对其内陆船舶的载运率施加更严格的限制，这意味着市场运输能力的下降幅度更大。在这种情况下运输价格将上涨。本文回顾的一些研究发现，在水位极低的情况下，莱茵河地区内河运输的每吨价格将几乎翻一番。这些上涨的运输价格导致福利损失。在2003年的干燥夏季，估计西北欧的损失总计约为4.8亿欧元。运输价格上涨触发了适应。内陆水运承运人可能使用较小的船只，托运人有机会在水位低时从内陆水运转换为替代运输方式。然而，这种效果可能相当适度，因为向公路和铁路的模式转换小于10％。另外，从长远来看，运输成本的变化可能导致某些经济活动的转移。

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  • 来源
    《Regional Environmental Change》 |2014年第3期|953-965|共13页
  • 作者

    Olaf Jonkeren; Piet Rietveld; Jos van Ommeren; Aline te Linde;

  • 作者单位

    European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen, via E. Fermi, 2749, 21027 Ispra, VA, Italy;

    Department of Spatial Economics, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1105, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands,Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands;

    Department of Spatial Economics, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1105, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands,Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands;

    Twynstra Gudde Adviseurs en Managers, Stationsplein 1, 3818 LE Amersfoort, The Netherlands,Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University, De Boelelaan 1085, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Climate change; Inland waterway transport; Transport costs;

    机译：气候变化;内河运输;运输费用;

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