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首页> 美国政府科技报告 >Effect of Climate Change on Crop Production Patterns with Implications to Transport Flows and Inland Waterways
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Effect of Climate Change on Crop Production Patterns with Implications to Transport Flows and Inland Waterways

机译：气候变化对作物生产模式的影响及其对运输流量和内陆水道的影响

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This project analyzed the demand for transportation capacity and changes in transportation flows on inland waterways due to shifts in crop production patterns induced by climate change. Shifts in the crop production mix have been observed in recent years in response to changing climate. The primary exhibited trend is that of a northward shift resulting, for example, in increased corn production in historically wheat-producing regions. Given differences in the typical destinations and volumes of corn and wheat shipments, such changes have the potential to alter the pattern, composition and seasonality of grain flows toward and along the Mississippi River. As a result, bulk cargo traffic patterns, transportation flows, and demand for transportation capacity and facilities in the Mississippi River basin may change dramatically in the near future. The project analyzed these changes using a U.S. agricultural sector model and an international grain transportation model. The former predicts shifts in production patterns due to climate change, while the latter analyzes the effect of predicted production shifts on transportation flows. The results will help planners in forecasting demand for Mississippi River transport facilities and capacity.

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