...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Regional Environmental Change >Statistical downscaling for climate change projections in the Mediterranean region: methods and results
【24h】

Statistical downscaling for climate change projections in the Mediterranean region: methods and results

机译：地中海地区气候变化预测的统计缩减：方法和结果

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Besides dynamical downscaling by regional climate models, statistical downscaling (SD) is a major tool to derive climate change projections on regional or even local scales. For the Mediterranean area, an increasing number of downscaling studies based on different statistical techniques have been published in the last two decades with a broad range of sometimes differing results relating to different variables and regional domains. This paper gives a short review of these Mediterranean downscaling studies mainly considering the following two aspects: (1) what kind of progress has been realized in this field since the early 1990s? The review addresses the inclusion of extremes in downscaling assessments, the development of probabilistic approaches, the extension of predictor sets, the use of ensembles for both dynamical model simulations and statistical model assessments, the consideration of non-stationarities in the predictor-predictand relationships, and some advances related to synoptic downscaling. (2) What are the main regional climate change signals in the Mediterranean area, considering agreed and controversial points also with respect to dynamical models? Best accordance among future projections can be found in seasonal temperatures with lower rates of warming in winter and spring, and, in most cases, higher ones in summer and autumn. Different results are obtained for the intra-annual range of extreme temperatures, but high-temperature conditions are generally expected to increase. Regarding seasonal precipitation, predominant reductions are indicated for spring, summer, and autumn. For winter, however, projections are distinctly different (GCMs: rainfall decrease; RCMs: increase only in the northernmost parts of the Mediterranean region; SD: widespread increases in the northern and western parts in several studies). Different results are obtained for rainfall extremes, but the entire precipitation distribution tends to shift towards higher and lower values. Apart from some sub-regional deviations, there is a predominant increase in future dry period durations. For near-surface winds, only a few studies are available, and they project some decline mainly for the winter season.
机译：除了通过区域气候模型进行动态降尺度外，统计降尺度（SD）是得出区域甚至本地尺度的气候变化预测的主要工具。在地中海地区，近二十年来越来越多的基于不同统计技术的降尺度研究发表，涉及不同变量和地区领域的结果有时范围广泛，有时差异很大。本文对这些地中海降尺度研究进行了简短回顾，主要考虑了以下两个方面：（1）自1990年代初以来，该领域已取得了哪些进展？审查涉及降尺度评估中的极端情况，概率方法的发展，预测变量集的扩展，动态模型仿真和统计模型评估中使用集成，在预测变量与预测变量之间关系中考虑非平稳性，以及与天气尺度缩小有关的一些进展。 （2）在考虑动力学模型方面也达成一致和有争议的观点时，地中海地区的主要区域气候变化信号是什么？未来预测之间的最佳一致性可以在季节性温度下找到，冬季和春季的升温速率较低，而在大多数情况下，夏季和秋季的升温速率较高。对于年内极端温度范围，可获得不同的结果，但通常预计高温条件会增加。关于季节性降水，春季，夏季和秋季显示主要减少。但是，对于冬季，预测有明显不同（GCM：降雨减少； RCM：仅在地中海地区的最北部增加； SD：在一些研究中北部和西部普遍增加）。对于极端降雨，获得了不同的结果，但是整个降水分布趋于向更高和更低的值移动。除了一些次区域偏差外，未来干旱期的持续时间主要增加。对于近地表风，只有少数研究可用，并且他们预测主要在冬季会有所下降。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号