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Increasingly warm summers in the Euro-Mediterranean zone: mean temperatures and extremes

机译：欧洲地中海地区夏季越来越热：平均温度和极端

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摘要

The recent increase in European temperatures led to a strong enhancement in the occurrence of extremely warm events, with relevant consequences for environment and everyday life. Here, we investigate the evolution of very intense warm and cold events in a south-western European zone during 1961-2007 at a seasonal level. Special attention is given to summertime when warming is the most pronounced. Using a previously developed theoretical model, we discuss how the average properties and long-term trends observed in probability density functions of daily temperatures can explain changes in the frequency of severe, isolated events. In this perspective, the recent intensification of extremely warm events, especially experienced by the Mediterranean zone, is proved to be well consistent with a pure shift of seasonal mean temperatures. On the other hand, any change in the second and higher distributional moments of daily temperatures is ruled out by the data, whereas the average values of these properties, that is, variability and asymmetry, do play a role by shaping the temporal behavior of very intense events.
机译：欧洲气温的最近升高导致极端温暖事件的发生大大增强，对环境和日常生活产生了相关影响。在这里，我们调查了1961-2007年欧洲西南部一个非常强烈的暖和冷事件在季节性水平上的演变。夏季特别注意变暖最明显的季节。使用以前开发的理论模型，我们讨论了在每日温度的概率密度函数中观察到的平均属性和长期趋势如何能够解释严重的孤立事件的频率变化。从这个角度来看，最近极端温暖事件的加剧，特别是地中海地区所经历的事件，被证明与季节平均温度的纯粹变化完全一致。另一方面，数据排除了第二天和更高温度分布瞬间的任何变化，而这些特性的平均值（即变异性和非对称性）通过改变激烈的事件。

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  • 来源
    《Regional Environmental Change》 |2014年第5期|1825-1832|共8页
  • 作者

    Claudia Simolo; Michele Brunetti; Maurizio Maugeri; Teresa Nanni;

  • 作者单位

    Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC), National Research Council (CNR), Via Gobetti 101, 40129 Bologna, Italy;

    Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC), National Research Council (CNR), Via Gobetti 101, 40129 Bologna, Italy;

    Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC), National Research Council (CNR), Via Gobetti 101, 40129 Bologna, Italy,Dipartimento di Fisica, Universita degli Studi di Milano, Via Celoria' 16, 20131 Milan, Italy;

    Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC), National Research Council (CNR), Via Gobetti 101, 40129 Bologna, Italy;

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  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Climate variability and change; Extreme events; Probability density functions; Moments;

    机译：气候多变性和变化;极端事件;概率密度函数;片刻;

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