Assessment of regional climate change impacts on Hungarian landscapes

Gabor Mezoesi; Burghard C. Meyer; Wolfgang Loib; Christoph Aubrecht; Peter Csorba; Teodora Bata

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Assessment of regional climate change impacts on Hungarian landscapes

机译：评估区域气候变化对匈牙利景观的影响

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The assessment of regional climate change impacts combined with the sensitivity of landscape functions by predictive modelling of hazardous landscape processes is a new fundamental field of research. In particular, this study investigates the effects of changing weather extremes on meso-regional-scale landscape vulnerability. Climatic-exposure parameter analysis was performed on a predicted climate change scenario. The exposure to climate change was analysed on the basis of the original data of the meso-scale IPCC A1B climate scenario from the REMO and ALADIN regional models for the periods of 2021-2050 and 2071-2100, and the regional types of climate change impacts were calculated by using cluster analysis. Selected climate exposure parameters of the REMO and ALADIN models were analysed, in particular, for extreme events (days with precipitation greater than 30 mm, heat waves, dry periods, wet periods) and for daily temperature and precipitation. The landscape functions impacted by climate change are proxies for the main recent and future problematic processes in Hungary. Soil erosion caused by water, drought, soil erosion caused by wind, mass movement and flash floods were analysed for the time periods of 1961-1990, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. Based on the sensitivity thresholds for the impact assessments, the landscape functional sensitivity indicators were interpreted, and an integrative summary of the five indicators was made, differentiating the regions facing only a few or multiple sensitivities. In Central Hungary, the increasing exposure and sensitivity to droughts will be a serious problem when following the REMO scenario. In several regions, most indicators will change the sensitivity threshold from a tolerable risk to an increased or very high risk.

机译：通过对危险景观过程的预测建模，结合区域功能敏感性对区域气候变化影响进行评估是一个新的基础研究领域。特别是，本研究调查了极端天气变化对中尺度区域景观脆弱性的影响。在预期的气候变化情景下进行了气候暴露参数分析。根据REMO和ALADIN区域模型在2021-2050和2071-2100期间的中尺度IPCC A1B气候情景的原始数据以及气候变化影响的区域类型，对气候变化的影响进行了分析。使用聚类分析来计算。分析了REMO和ALADIN模型的选定气候暴露参数，特别是针对极端事件（降水大于30毫米的天，热浪，干旱时期，潮湿时期）以及每日温度和降水。受气候变化影响的景观功能是匈牙利最近和未来主要问题进程的代理。分析了1961-1990年，2021-2050年和2071-2100年期间水，干旱，风，群众运动和山洪造成的土壤侵蚀。基于影响评估的敏感度阈值，对景观功能敏感度指标进行了解释，并对五个指标进行了综合总结，从而区分了仅面临少量或多重敏感度的区域。在匈牙利中部，按照REMO情景，不断增加的干旱暴露和敏感性将是一个严重的问题。在一些地区，大多数指标会将敏感度阈值从可忍受的风险更改为增加的风险或非常高的风险。

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来源
《Regional Environmental Change》 |2013年第4期|797-811|共15页
作者
Gabor Mezoesi; Burghard C. Meyer; Wolfgang Loib; Christoph Aubrecht; Peter Csorba; Teodora Bata;
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作者单位

Department of Physical Geography and Geoinformatics, University of Szeged, Egyetem str. 2, Szeged 6722, Hungary;

Institut fuer Geographie, Universitat Leipzig, Johannisallee 19a, 04103 Leipzig, Germany;

Austrian Institute of Technology, Donau-City-Str. 1, 1220 Wien, Austria;

Austrian Institute of Technology, Donau-City-Str. 1, 1220 Wien, Austria,University of Southern California, Donau-City-Str. 1, 1220 Wien, Austria;

Department of Landscape Protection and Environmental Geography, University of Debrecen, Egyetem ter 1, Debrecen 4010, Hungary;

Department of Physical Geography and Geoinformatics, University of Szeged, Egyetem str. 2, Szeged 6722, Hungary;

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正文语种 eng
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关键词
Climate change; Sensitivity of landscape; Impact of hazardous landscape processes; Carpathian basin; Regionalisation;

机译：气候变化;景观敏感性;危险景观过程的影响;喀尔巴阡盆地;区域化;

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Assessment of regional climate change impacts on Hungarian landscapes

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