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首页> 外文期刊>Regional Environmental Change >Historical development and future outlook of the flood damage potential of residential areas in the Alpine Lech Valley (Austria) between 1971 and 2030
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Historical development and future outlook of the flood damage potential of residential areas in the Alpine Lech Valley (Austria) between 1971 and 2030

机译：1971年至2030年之间高山莱希河谷（奥地利）居民区的洪灾破坏潜力的历史发展和未来展望

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摘要

In the recent past, the Alpine Lech valley (Austria) experienced three damaging flood events within 6 years despite the various structural flood protection measures in place. For an improved flood risk management, the analysis of flood damage potentials is a crucial component. Since the expansion of built-up areas and their associated values is seen as one of the main drivers of rising flood losses, the goal of this study is to analyze the spatial development of the assets at risk, particularly of residential areas, due to land use changes over a historic period (since 1971) and up to possible shifts in future (until 2030). The analysis revealed that the alpine study area was faced to remarkable land use changes like urbanization and the decline of agriculturally used grassland areas. Although the major agglomeration of residential areas inside the flood plains took place before 1971, a steady growth of values at risk can still be observed until now. Even for the future, the trend is ongoing, but depends very much on the assumed land use scenario and the underlying land use policy. Between 1971 and 2006, the annual growth rate of the damage potential of residential areas amounted to 1.1 % ('constant values,' i.e., asset values at constant prices of reference year 2006) or 3.0 % ('adjusted values,' i.e., asset values adjusted by GDP increase at constant prices of reference year 2006) for three flood scenarios. For the projected time span between 2006 and 2030, a further annual increase by 1.0 % ('constant values') or even 4.2 % ('adjusted values') may be possible when the most extreme urbanization scenario 'Overall Growth' is considered. Although socio-economic development is regarded as the main driver for increasing flood losses, our analysis shows that settlement development does not preferably take place within flood prone areas.
机译：在最近的过去，尽管采取了各种结构性的防洪措施，但高山莱希河谷（奥地利）在6年内经历了3次破坏性洪水事件。为了改善洪水风险管理，洪水危害潜力分析是至关重要的组成部分。由于建筑面积的扩大及其相关价值被视为洪水泛滥的主要驱动因素之一，因此本研究的目的是分析受土地影响的高风险资产（尤其是居民区）的空间发展使用历史性时期（自1971年）到未来可能发生的变化（直到2030年）的变化。分析表明，高山研究区面临着显着的土地利用变化，例如城市化和农业用草地面积的减少。尽管洪泛平原内居民区的主要集聚发生在1971年之前，但到目前为止，仍可以观察到处于危险之中的价值的稳定增长。即使对于未来，这种趋势仍在持续，但在很大程度上取决于假设的土地利用情景和基本的土地利用政策。在1971年至2006年之间，住宅区潜在破坏的年增长率为1.1％（“恒定值”，即2006基准年的不变价格资产值）或3.0％（“调整后的值”，即资产在三种洪水情景下，按GDP的增长值（按2006年参考年的不变价格调整）。对于2006年至2030年的预计时间跨度，如果考虑到最极端的城市化情景“全面增长”，则有可能进一步每年增长1.0％（“恒定值”）或什至4.2％（“调整值”）。尽管社会经济发展被认为是造成洪灾损失增加的主要驱动力，但我们的分析表明，定居发展并非最好发生在洪灾易发地区。

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