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首页> 外文期刊>Natural Hazards >Spatio-temporal dynamics in the flood exposure due to land use changes in the Alpine Lech Valley in Tyrol (Austria)
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Spatio-temporal dynamics in the flood exposure due to land use changes in the Alpine Lech Valley in Tyrol (Austria)

机译：奥地利蒂罗尔州高山莱希河谷土地利用变化导致的洪水暴露时空动态

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摘要

Flood risk is expected to increase in many regions of the world in the next decades with rising flood losses as a consequence. First and foremost, it can be attributed to the expansion of settlement and industrial areas into flood plains and the resulting accumulation of assets. For a future-oriented and a more robust flood risk management, it is therefore of importance not only to estimate potential impacts of climate change on the flood hazard, but also to analyze the spatio-temporal dynamics of flood exposure due to land use changes. In this study, carried out in the Alpine Lech Valley in Tyrol (Austria), various land use scenarios until 2030 were developed by means of a spatially explicit land use model, national spatial planning scenarios and current spatial policies. The combination of the simulated land use patterns with different inundation scenarios enabled us to derive statements about possible future changes in flood-exposed built-up areas. The results indicate that the potential assets at risk depend very much on the selected socioeconomic scenario. The important conditions affecting the potential assets at risk that differ between the scenarios are the demand for new built-up areas as well as on the types of conversions allowed to provide the necessary areas at certain locations. The range of potential changes in flood-exposed residential areas varies from no further change in the most moderate scenario 'Overall Risk' to 119 % increase in the most extreme scenario 'Overall Growth' (under current spatial policy) and 159 % increase when disregarding current building restrictions.
机译：未来几十年，世界许多地区的洪水风险预计将增加，结果洪水损失将增加。首先，它可以归因于定居点和工业区向洪泛区的扩展以及由此产生的资产积累。因此，对于面向未来和更强大的洪水风险管理，不仅重要的是估计气候变化对洪水灾害的潜在影响，而且分析土地利用变化引起的洪水暴露时空动态也很重要。在这项由奥地利蒂罗尔州的高山莱希河谷进行的研究中，通过空间明确的土地使用模型，国家空间规划方案和当前的空间政策，开发了直至2030年的各种土地利用方案。模拟的土地利用模式与不同的淹没情景相结合，使我们能够得出有关洪水淹没建筑区未来可能变化的陈述。结果表明，潜在的风险资产在很大程度上取决于所选的社会经济情景。在不同方案之间，影响潜在风险资产的重要条件是对新建筑区域的需求以及允许在某些位置提供必要区域的转换类型。在洪水泛滥的居民区中，潜在变化的范围从最温和的情景“总体风险”的进一步变化到最极端的情景“总体增长”（根据当前空间政策）的119％增长，以及不计其数的159％的增长。当前的建筑限制。

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