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首页> 外文期刊>Regional Environmental Change >Drastic reduction in the potential habitats for alpine and subalpine vegetation in the Pyrenees due to twenty-first-century climate change
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Drastic reduction in the potential habitats for alpine and subalpine vegetation in the Pyrenees due to twenty-first-century climate change

机译：由于二十一世纪的气候变化，比利牛斯山脉高山和亚高山植被的潜在生境急剧减少

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Recent climate change is already affecting both ecosystems and the organisms that inhabit them, with mountains and their associated biota being particularly vulnerable. Due to the high conservation value of mountain ecosystems, reliable science-based information is needed to implement additional conservation efforts in order to ensure their future. This paper examines how climate change might impact on the distribution of the main alpine and subalpine vegetation in terms of losses of suitable area in the Oriental Pyrenees. The algorithm of maximum entropy (Maxent) was used to relate current environmental conditions (climate, topography, geological properties) to present data for the studied vegetation units, and time and space projections were subsequently carried out considering climate change predictions for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080. All models predicted rising altitude trends for all studied vegetation units. Moreover, the analysis of future trends under different climate scenarios for 2080 suggests an average loss in potential ranges of 92.3-99.9 % for alpine grasslands, 76.8-98.4 % for subalpine (and alpine) scrublands and 68.8-96.1 % for subalpine forest. The drastic reduction in the potential distribution areas for alpine grasslands, subalpine scrublands and Pinus uncinata forests highlights the potential severity of the effects of climate change on vegetation in the highest regions of the Pyrenees. Thus, alpine grasslands can be expected to become relegated to refuge areas (summit areas), with their current range being taken over by subalpine scrublands. Furthermore, subalpine forest units will probably become displaced and will occupy areas that currently present subalpine scrub vegetation.
机译：最近的气候变化已经在影响生态系统和栖息于其中的生物，山区及其相关生物群特别脆弱。由于山区生态系统具有很高的保护价值，因此需要可靠的基于科学的信息来实施更多的保护工作，以确保其未来发展。本文从东方比利牛斯山脉适宜面积的损失出发，研究了气候变化如何影响主要高山和亚高山植被的分布。使用最大熵算法（Maxent）将当前的环境条件（气候，地形，地质特征）与所研究的植被单位的数据联系起来，随后考虑了2020年的气候变化预测，进行了时空投影， 2050年和2080年。所有模型都预测了所有研究的植被单位的海拔上升趋势。此外，对2080年不同气候情景下未来趋势的分析表明，高寒草原潜在损失的平均范围为92.3-99.9％，亚高山（和高山）灌丛的平均损失为76.8-98.4％，亚高山森林的平均损失为68.8-96.1％。高寒草原，亚高山灌丛和松林的潜在分布区域急剧减少，凸显了气候变化对比利牛斯山脉最高地区植被的潜在严重影响。因此，预计高山草原将沦为避难区（顶峰区），其当前范围将被亚高山灌丛所取代。此外，亚高山森林单位可能会流离失所，并将占据目前呈现亚高山灌木植被的地区。

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