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Assessing the sensitivity of alpine birds to potential future changes in habitat and climate to inform management strategies

机译：评估高山鸟类对未来栖息地和气候变化的敏感性，以制定管理策略

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Climate change has resulted in upward elevational shifts in the distribution of animals and plants in many areas. The potential consequences of such changes for alpine bird communities were assessed by modelling data on breeding bird distributions along altitudinal gradients in the European Alps in relation to habitat, topography and temperature. Models were used to assess species sensitivity to potential future environmental change by estimating distributions under a range of scenarios of habitat and climate change, thereby identifying likely future conservation priorities. Distributions of the majority of forest or shrub species remained stable or increased in response to climate change as a result of elevational shifts in suitable habitats. However, open habitat species may face a severe decrease in distribution as grasslands are colonised by forest and shrubs, because much of the area considered is not at a sufficient altitude to accommodate further elevational shifts. This may be exacerbated if vegetation development is constrained at high altitudes, leading to a habitat squeeze caused by an asymmetric response of vegetation zones to climate change. These results suggest that grassland species may be of conservation concern in the future, and that management strategies to maintain openness should be prioritised. However, model outcomes also suggested such management may not be sufficient for a number of species if climate change results in a mismatch between the distribution of suitable climates and suitable habitats. The loss of open habitats may therefore present a serious conservation problem for mountain biodiversity in the future.
机译：气候变化导致许多地区动植物分布的高度变化。通过对欧洲阿尔卑斯山沿栖息地，地形和温度相关的沿海拔梯度的繁殖鸟类分布的数据进行建模，评估了这种变化对高山鸟类群落的潜在后果。通过估计一系列栖息地和气候变化情景下的分布，使用模型来评估物种对未来潜在环境变化的敏感性，从而确定未来可能的保护重点。由于合适的生境的海拔变化，大多数森林或灌木物种的分布响应气候变化而保持稳定或增加。但是，由于草地被森林和灌木丛定居，开放的栖息地物种可能会面临严重的分布减少，因为考虑到的大部分地区海拔不足以适应进一步的海拔变化。如果在高海拔地区限制植被发展，可能会加剧这种情况，这会由于植被区对气候变化的不对称响应而导致栖息地受到挤压。这些结果表明，草地物种可能会在未来引起人们的关注，应该优先考虑保持开放性的管理策略。但是，模型结果还表明，如果气候变化导致合适的气候和合适的栖息地之间的分布不匹配，那么这种管理可能对许多物种来说是不够的。因此，开放式生境的丧失可能会在未来为山区生物多样性带来严重的保护问题。

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