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Land-cover changes and recent hydrological evolution in the Duero Basin (Spain)

机译：杜罗盆地（西班牙）的土地覆盖变化和近期水文演变

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摘要

Land-use and land-cover changes have attracted substantial scientific interest in recent years because of their marked influence on hydrological cycles. In developed countries of the Mediterranean basin, the generalized revegetation and forest growth in mountainous areas that occurred during the last five decades are negatively affecting the evolution of water resources in headwaters. In this study, changes in land cover in the Duero River Basin (northern Spain) during the last 50 years were analyzed and their role in hydrological evolution was estimated. For this purpose, step-wise linear regressions were developed to estimate the evolution of runoff as a function of climate (precipitation and temperatures). The results show a significant expansion of forest cover in the headwaters, although it has been more extensive in the mountains to the north of the basin than to the south. River discharges in the headwaters underwent a generalized decline during the study period (1961-2006), but precipitation over the same period did not show an appreciable trend. In the absence of noticeable trends in removal of water for human consumption, our results indicate that revegetation is contributing to the observed hydrological decline. Our hypothesis is confirmed because of the greater divergence in the evolution of precipitation and runoff in the northern headwaters (more forest growth) than in the south headwaters (less forest growth). Results suggest that further increases in forest area will enhance hydrological decline and highlight the importance of integrating land-cover information in water availability assessments in a region where water is a strategic resource.
机译：近年来，土地利用和土地覆被的变化由于对水文循环的显着影响而引起了广泛的科学兴趣。在地中海盆地的发达国家中，过去五十年来山区的普遍植被恢复和森林生长正在对源头水资源的演变产生不利影响。在这项研究中，分析了杜罗河流域（西班牙北部）过去50年的土地覆盖变化，并评估了它们在水文演变中的作用。为此，开发了逐步线性回归以估计径流演变与气候（降水和温度）的关系。结果表明，尽管流域北部的山区比南部的山区更广泛，但源头地区的森林覆盖率显着扩大。在研究期间（1961-2006年），源头的河流排泄量普遍下降，但同期的降水量却没有显示出明显的趋势。在没有明显的人类取水趋势的情况下，我们的结果表明，植被恢复是导致观测到的水文下降的原因。我们的假设得到了证实，因为北部源头地区（森林增长更多）与南部源头地区（森林增长更少）相比，降水和径流的演变差异更大。结果表明，森林面积的进一步增加将加剧水文状况的下降，并突出显示在水为战略资源的地区，将土地覆盖信息纳入水可用性评估的重要性。

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