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Spatial assessment of climate change effects on crop suitability for major plantation crops in Sri Lanka

机译:气候变化对斯里兰卡主要种植作物的作物适应性影响的空间评估

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Climate change is the main global challenge of this century; it is therefore imperative to identify its effects on agriculture in developing countries. This research makes spatial assessment of climate change effect on major plantation crops in Sri Lanka, with emphasis on crop suitability of tea, rubber, and coconut. Geo-referenced maps of spatial and temporal changes in crop suitability and production potentials are generated and compared. Data pertaining to six agro-ecological zones under the study area are analyzed for a period of 1980-2007. Crop suitability maps are generated amalgamating yield maps and climatic factors maps using AHP in multi-criteria analysis under two time frames of 1980-1992 and 1993-2007. Percent change in crop suitability and crop yield classes is calculated based on five crop suitability and five crop yield classes during two time frames. Dynamics of climatic parameters and crop yield are recognized using geo-referenced maps. The suitability maps of the two time frames are compared to identify the changes with each crop in conjunction with changes in the prevailing climate and yield. Geographic shift of suitability, yield, and climate classes are examined. Net gain or loss in crop production is quantified. Long-term annual rainfall significantly decreased in mid-country wet zone, whereas the mean temperature of the study area increased by 1.4℃. Results clearly showed that the climate and yield can be meaningfully related to the crop suitability and management.
机译:气候变化是本世纪的主要全球挑战。因此,必须确定其对发展中国家农业的影响。这项研究对斯里兰卡主要种植作物的气候变化影响进行了空间评估,重点是茶叶,橡胶和椰子的作物适应性。生成并比较了作物适应性和生产潜力的时空变化的地理参考图。研究区域内六个农业生态区的数据为1980-2007年。使用AHP在1980-1992年和1993-2007年这两个时间框架内的多标准分析中,生成了作物适宜性图,包括混合产量图和气候因素图。根据两个时段内的五种作物适宜性和五种作物产量类别,计算出作物适应性和作物产量类别的变化百分比。使用地理参考图可以识别气候参数和作物产量的动态。比较两个时间框架的适用性图,以识别每种作物的变化以及主要气候和产量的变化。检查了适应性,产量和气候等级的地理变化。作物生产的净收益或损失被量化。中部国家湿地的长期年降水量显着减少,而研究区的平均温度却升高了1.4℃。结果清楚地表明,气候和产量与作物的适宜性和管理意义重大。

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