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Downscaling nonclimatic drivers for surface water vulnerabilities in the Elbe river basin

机译：缩减易北河流域地表水脆弱性的非气候驱动因素

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摘要

Aggregated consideration of both climate and socio-economic change in a coarse spatial resolution is a central feature for scenario development in global change research. Downscaling of the supposed aggregated changes is a necessary prerequisite for the assessments of global change at the regional scale. The present paper describes the method and results of an approach to develop and to apply scenarios of socio-economic change at a sub-national level, which are consistent with global change scenarios. National and regional models of economic and demographic development are used to regionalise drivers of socio-economic change. Scenario results are subsequently applied in order to analyse the impacts of socio-economic and climatic changes on water management issues in the Elbe river basin. Starting from global IPCC-Emissions Scenarios and taking up their key points, we formulate two scenarios for the German and Czech parts of the Elbe catchment areas. We present a system of demographic and economic models, designed to consistently project socioeconomic developments at a national and sub-national level and, thus, to quantitatively illustrate our scenarios. The results show that in a scenario that assumes continued globalisation and emphasis on economic growth, export orientation will result in a comparatively high share of manufacturing. Growth spreads from centres to peripheral regions. Still, at the national level, the increase in population and employment will be modest and create little additional pressure, but water stress will be considerably stronger on a regional basis, namely in metropolitan areas such as Prague, Berlin and Hamburg. In a scenario where economic goals are balanced with ecologic and social ones, growth is weaker and the weight of the service sector increases more rapidly, thus easing the driving forces for overall water demand and pollution. However, as in this scenario regional metropolitan centres develop at the cost of peripheral regions, regional development is more selective and the driving forces for potential water stress will diverge spatially.
机译：在粗略的空间分辨率中综合考虑气候和社会经济变化是全球变化研究中情景发展的主要特征。缩减总体变化的规模是评估区域规模全球变化的必要先决条件。本文描述了在次国家级开发和应用社会经济变化方案的方法和方法的结果，这些方案与全球变化方案一致。经济和人口发展的国家和区域模型用于对社会经济变化的驱动因素进行区域划分。随后应用了情景结果，以分析社会经济和气候变化对易北河流域水资源管理问题的影响。从全球IPCC排放情景出发，并抓住它们的重点，我们为易北河流域的德国和捷克部分制定了两种情景。我们提出了一种人口和经济模型系统，旨在持续地预测国家和地方以下一级的社会经济发展，从而定量地说明我们的情况。结果表明，在假设持续全球化和重视经济增长的情况下，以出口为导向将导致相对较高的制造业份额。增长从中心扩散到周边地区。尽管如此，在国家一级，人口和就业的增长将是温和的，几乎不会产生额外的压力，但是从区域来看，即在布拉格，柏林和汉堡等大都市地区，水资源压力将大大增加。在经济目标与生态目标和社会目标相平衡的情况下，增长较弱，服务部门的权重增加更快，从而减轻了总体用水需求和污染的驱动力。但是，由于在这种情况下，区域大都市中心的发展是以牺牲周边地区为代价的，因此区域发展更具选择性，潜在水压力的驱动力将在空间上发生分歧。

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