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首页> 外文期刊>Regional Environmental Change >Framework for high-resolution climate change impact assessment on grapevines at a regional scale
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Framework for high-resolution climate change impact assessment on grapevines at a regional scale

机译：在区域范围内对葡萄藤进行高分辨率气候变化影响评估的框架

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摘要

Understanding the impacts of climate change on viticulture is especially essential in those areas producing high-quality wines. In this work, we create an operational framework to investigate climate change impact on viticulture in the Tuscany region (central Italy) the viticulture industry of which relies on producing high-quality wines to compete in a global market. The framework includes (i) statistical downscaling of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs for the period 1975-2099 to a local scale; (ii) the use of downscaling outputs as driving variables in specific simulation models; (iii) the spatial interpolation of model outputs to feed an economic and (iv) a quality model. The results show that as a consequence of a progressive increase in temperature and a decrease in rainfall, (a) the area potentially suitable for grapevine cultivation increases; (b) the grapevine growth cycle becomes shorter; (c) the final yield is gradually reduced, particularly in those areas characterised by quality cultivation regulation; and d) the premium wine quality production areas shift towards higher elevations. The proposed framework revealed itself to be an effective tool for climate change impact assessment at a very local scale. Additionally, this approach may be easily extended to testing the effect of different adaptation strategies in terms of management practices (e.g. irrigation) and grape varieties (e.g. longer or shorter cycle, advanced or delayed bud burst).
机译：在生产高品质葡萄酒的地区，了解气候变化对葡萄栽培的影响尤为重要。在这项工作中，我们创建了一个运营框架，以调查气候变化对托斯卡纳地区（意大利中部）的葡萄栽培的影响，该地区的葡萄栽培产业依靠生产高品质的葡萄酒来在全球市场上竞争。该框架包括（i）1975年至2099年期间的一般流通模型（GCM）输出的统计缩减至本地规模； （ii）在特定的仿真模型中使用缩减输出作为驱动变量； （iii）模型输出的空间插值，以提供经济模型；以及（iv）质量模型。结果表明，由于温度的逐渐升高和降雨的减少，（a）可能适合葡萄种植的面积增加了； （b）葡萄树的生长周期变短； （c）最终产量逐渐减少，特别是在以优质耕作法规为特征的地区； d）优质葡萄酒产区转向更高的海拔。拟议的框架表明，它本身是在非常地方范围内进行气候变化影响评估的有效工具。另外，该方法可以容易地扩展到测试不同适应策略在管理实践（例如灌溉）和葡萄品种（例如更长或更短的周期，提前或延迟的芽破裂）方面的效果。

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