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Climatic drivers of potential hazards in Mediterranean coasts

机译：气候变化潜在的地中海沿岸驱动因素

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摘要

This paper studies climatic drivers (air and water temperature, precipitation rates, river discharge, sea level and storm patterns) in four Mediterranean regions: the Catalan-Valencia Coast (Spain), the Oran (Algeria) and Gabes (Tunisia) Gulfs and the western Nile Delta (Egypt). The paper also considers the potential hazards that these drivers can induce. It first analyses climatic trends in the drivers, taking into account the available time series of recorded and simulated meteo-oceanographic data from different sources. Next, it presents the general framework to assess biogeophysical hazards (flooding, erosion, droughts and water quality), followed by a simple and yet robust evaluation of those hazards for the four studied coastal sites. Assuming climate change projections under different scenarios and considering the observed trends in drivers, the resulting erosion rates due to sea-level rise and wave storm effects have been estimated. The Nile and Ebro Deltas, together with the Oran Gulf, are more vulnerable than the Gulfs of Valencia and Gabes. Regarding water quality in terms of (a) precipitation and dissolved oxygen in the water column and (b) sea surface temperature, the results show that the most vulnerable zones for the projected conditions (a) are the Gulfs of Oran, Valencia and Gabes, while the Nile Delta is the region where the decrease in water quality will be less pronounced. For the projected conditions (b), the most vulnerable zone is the Ebro Delta, while the impact in the other three cases will be smaller and of comparable magnitude. Finally, the overall future impact of these hazards (associated to climatic change) in the four sites is discussed in comparative terms, deriving some conclusions.
机译：本文研究了四个地中海地区的气候驱动因素（空气和水温，降水率，河流流量，海平面和风暴模式）：加泰罗尼亚-巴伦西亚海岸（西班牙），奥兰（阿尔及利亚）和加布斯（突尼斯）海湾以及尼罗河西部三角洲（埃及）。本文还考虑了这些驱动因素可能导致的潜在危害。它首先分析驱动程序中的气候趋势，同时考虑到来自不同来源的已记录和模拟的气象海洋学数据的可用时间序列。接下来，它提出了评估生物地球物理危害（洪水，侵蚀，干旱和水质）的总体框架，然后对四个研究沿海地区的这些危害进行了简单而稳健的评估。假设在不同情况下的气候变化预测并考虑观察到的驱动因素趋势，则估计了由于海平面上升和海浪风暴影响而导致的侵蚀率。尼罗河和埃布罗三角洲以及奥兰海湾比瓦伦西亚和加布斯海湾更加脆弱。关于（a）水柱中的降水和溶解氧以及（b）海面温度方面的水质，结果表明，在预计条件（a）下最脆弱的地区是奥兰湾，巴伦西亚和加布斯，而尼罗河三角洲是水质下降不太明显的地区。对于预计的情况（b），最脆弱的区域是埃布罗三角洲，而在其他三种情况下的影响将较小，且幅度可比。最后，以比较的方式讨论了这四个地点（与气候变化有关）对这些危害的总体未来影响，并得出了一些结论。

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  • 来源
    《Regional Environmental Change》 |2011年第3期|p.617-636|共20页
  • 作者

    Agustin Sanchez-Arcilla; Cesar Moesso; Joan Pau Sierra; Marc Mestres; Ali Harzallah; Mohamed Senouci; Mohamed El Raey;

  • 作者单位

    Laboratori d'Enginyeria Marftima, Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya, Jordi Girona 1-3, Edifici Dl Campus Nord, 08034 Barcelona, Spain,Centre Intemacional d'Investigacio dels Recursos Costaners, Jordi Girona 1-3, Edifici Dl Campus Nord, 08034 Barcelona, Spain;

    Laboratori d'Enginyeria Marftima, Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya, Jordi Girona 1-3, Edifici Dl Campus Nord, 08034 Barcelona, Spain,Centre Intemacional d'Investigacio dels Recursos Costaners, Jordi Girona 1-3, Edifici Dl Campus Nord, 08034 Barcelona, Spain;

    Laboratori d'Enginyeria Marftima, Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya, Jordi Girona 1-3, Edifici Dl Campus Nord, 08034 Barcelona, Spain,Centre Intemacional d'Investigacio dels Recursos Costaners, Jordi Girona 1-3, Edifici Dl Campus Nord, 08034 Barcelona, Spain;

    Laboratori d'Enginyeria Marftima, Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya, Jordi Girona 1-3, Edifici Dl Campus Nord, 08034 Barcelona, Spain,Centre Intemacional d'Investigacio dels Recursos Costaners, Jordi Girona 1-3, Edifici Dl Campus Nord, 08034 Barcelona, Spain;

    Institut National des Sciences et Technologies de la Mer, 28, rue du 2 mars 1934, 2025 Salammbo, Tunisia;

    Membre du Groupe Intergouvememental sur l'Evolution du Climat (IPCC), Association de Recherche Climat Environnement, ARCE, BP 4250, Ibn Rochd, 31037 Oran, Algeria;

    Alexandria University, Arab Academy of Science and Technology and Maritime Transport, El-Guish Road, El-Shatby, Alexandria 21526, Egypt;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    mediterranean; coastal hazards; climatic drivers; erosion; flooding; water quality;

    机译：地中海;沿海灾害;气候驱动因素;侵蚀;洪水;水质;

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