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Comparison of task complexity measures for emergency operating procedures: Convergent validity and predictive validity

机译：紧急操作程序的任务复杂性度量比较：收敛效度和预测效度

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摘要

Human performance while executing operating procedures is critically important for the safety of complex industrial systems. To predict and model human performance, several complexity measures have been developed. This study aims to compare the convergent validity and predictive validity of three existing complexity measures, step complexity (SC), task size, and task complexity (TC), using operator performance data collected from an emergency operating procedure (EOP) experiment. This comparative study shows that these measures have a high convergent validity with each other, most likely because all of them involve the size dimension of complexity. These measures and their sub-measures also have a high predictive validity for operation time and a moderate-to-high predictive validity for error rate, except the step logic complexity (SLC) measure, a component of the SC measure. SLC appears not to contribute to the predictive validity in the experimental EOPs. The use of visual, auditory, cognitive, and psychomotor (VACP) rating scales in the TC measure seems to be significantly beneficial for explaining the human error rate; however, these rating scales appear not to adequately reflect the complexity differences among the meta-operations in EOPs.
机译：执行操作程序时的人员绩效对于复杂工业系统的安全至关重要。为了预测和模拟人类绩效，已经开发了几种复杂性度量。本研究旨在使用从紧急操作程序（EOP）实验中收集的操作员绩效数据，比较三种现有的复杂性度量（步骤复杂性（SC），任务大小和任务复杂性（TC））的收敛效度和预测效度。这项比较研究表明，这些措施彼此之间具有高度收敛的有效性，这很可能是因为它们都涉及复杂性的规模维度。除了步骤逻辑复杂度（SLC）度量（SC度量的一部分）以外，这些度量及其子度量还对操作时间具有较高的预测效度，并且对错误率具有中等至较高的预测有效性。 SLC似乎对实验性EOP的预测有效性没有帮助。在TC测量中使用视觉，听觉，认知和精神运动（VACP）评分量表似乎对解释人为错误率非常有利；但是，这些等级量表似乎无法充分反映EOP中元操作之间的复杂性差异。

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