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Sensitivity measures for optimal mitigation of risk and reduction of model uncertainty

机译：敏感性措施，可最佳缓解风险并减少模型不确定性

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摘要

This paper presents a new set of reliability sensitivity measures. The purpose is to identify the optimal manner in which to mitigate risk to civil infrastructure, and reduce model uncertainty in order to improve risk estimates. Three measures are presented. One identifies the infrastructure components that should be prioritized for retrofit. Another measure identifies the infrastructure that should be prioritized for more refined modeling. The third measure identifies the models that should be prioritized in research to improve models, for example by gathering new data. The developments are presented in the context of a region with 622 buildings that are subjected to seismicity from several sources. A comprehensive seismic risk analysis of this region is conducted, with over 300 random variables, 30 model types, and 4000 model instances. All models are probabilistic and emphasis is placed on the explicit characterization of epistemic uncertainty. For the considered region, the buildings that should first be retrofitted are found to be pre-code unreinforced masonry buildings. Conversely, concrete shear wall buildings rank highest on the list of buildings that should be subjected to more detailed modeling. The ground shaking intensity model for shallow crustal earthquakes and the concrete shear wall structural response model rank highest on the list of models that should be prioritized by research to improve engineering analysis models.
机译：本文提出了一套新的可靠性敏感性措施。目的是确定减轻民用基础设施风险，减少模型不确定性以改善风险估计的最佳方式。提出了三种措施。一个可以识别应优先考虑进行改造的基础架构组件。另一项措施是确定应优先考虑的基础结构，以进行更完善的建模。第三项措施确定了应优先进行研究的模型，以改进模型，例如通过收集新数据。在具有622栋建筑物的区域内展示了这些开发情况，这些建筑物受到来自多个来源的地震影响。对该区域进行了全面的地震风险分析，包含300多个随机变量，30种模型类型和4000个模型实例。所有模型都是概率模型，重点放在认知不确定性的显式表征上。对于所考虑的区域，发现应该首先进行翻新的建筑物是未加固的预砌砖石建筑。相反，混凝土剪力墙建筑物在应进行更详细建模的建筑物列表中排名最高。浅层地壳地震的震动强度模型和混凝土剪力墙结构响应模型在模型列表中排名最高，这些模型应优先研究以改进工程分析模型。

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