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An approach for prediction of petroleum production facility performance considering Arctic influence factors

机译：考虑北极影响因素的石油生产设施绩效预测方法

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摘要

As the oil and gas (O&G) industry is increasing the focus on petroleum exploration and development in the Arctic region, it is becoming increasingly important to design exploration and production facilities to suit the local operating conditions. The cold and harsh climate, the long distance from customer and suppliers' markets, and the sensitive environment may have considerable influence on the choice of design solutions and production performance characteristics such as throughput capacity, reliability, availability, maintainability, and supportability (RAMS) as well as operational and maintenance activities. Due to this, data and information collected for similar systems used in a normal climate may not be suitable. Hence, it is important to study and develop methods for prediction of the production performance characteristics during the design and operation phases.rnThe aim of this paper is to present an approach for prediction of the production performance for oil and gas production facilities considering influencing factors in Arctic conditions. The proportional repair model (PRM) is developed in order to predict repair rate in Arctic conditions. The model is based on the proportional hazard model (PHM). A simple case study is used to demonstrate how the proposed approach can be applied.
机译：随着石油和天然气（O＆G）行业越来越关注北极地区的石油勘探和开发，设计适合当地工作条件的勘探和生产设施变得越来越重要。寒冷和严酷的气候，与客户和供应商市场的距离过长以及敏感的环境可能会对设计解决方案的选择和生产性能特征（例如吞吐量，可靠性，可用性，可维护性和可支持性（RAMS））产生重大影响以及运营和维护活动。因此，在正常气候下使用类似系统收集的数据和信息可能不适合。因此，研究和开发预测设计和运营阶段生产性能特征的方法很重要。本文的目的是提出一种考虑油气生产设施中影响因素的预测生产性能的方法。北极条件。开发了比例修复模型（PRM），以预测北极条件下的修复率。该模型基于比例风险模型（PHM）。一个简单的案例研究用于说明如何应用建议的方法。

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