On the validation of risk analysis-A commentary

Tony Rosqvist

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On the validation of risk analysis-A commentary

机译：关于风险分析的有效性-评注

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Aven and Heide (2009) [1] provided interesting views on the reliability and validation of risk analysis. The four validation criteria presented are contrasted with modelling features related to the relative frequency-based and Bayesian approaches to risk analysis. In this commentary I would like to bring forth some issues on validation that partly confirm and partly suggest changes in the interpretation of the introduced validation criteria-especially, in the context of low probability-high consequence systems. The mental model of an expert in assessing probabilities is argued to be a key notion in understanding the validation of a risk analysis.

机译：Aven and Heide（2009）[1]对风险分析的可靠性和有效性提出了有趣的看法。提出的四个验证标准与与基于相对频率和贝叶斯方法进行风险分析的建模功能形成对比。在这篇评论中，我想提出一些关于验证的问题，这些问题部分地确认并部分建议对引入的验证标准的解释进行更改，尤其是在低概率，高后果系统的情况下。据认为，评估概率专家的心理模型是理解风险分析验证的关键概念。

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来源
《Reliability Engineering & System Safety》 |2010年第11期|P.1261-1265|共5页
作者
Tony Rosqvist;
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作者单位

VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, P.O.Box 02044 VTT, Finland;

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收录信息美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类
关键词
risk analysis validation; rnrisk-informed decision-making; rnuncertainties;

机译：风险分析验证;有风险的决策;不确定性;

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On the validation of risk analysis-A commentary

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