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The concept of ignorance in a risk assessment and risk management context

机译：风险评估和风险管理环境中的无知概念

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摘要

There are many definitions of ignorance in the context of risk assessment and risk management. Most refer to situations in which there are lack of knowledge, poor basis for probability assignments and possible outcomes not (fully) known. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the ignorance concept in this setting. Based on a set of risk and uncertainty features, we establish conceptual structures characterising the level of ignorance. These features include the definition of chances (relative frequency-interpreted probabilities) and the existence of scientific uncertainties. Based on these structures, we suggest a definition of ignorance linked to scientific uncertainties, i.e. the lack of understanding of how consequences of the activity are influenced by the underlying factors. In this way, ignorance can be viewed as a condition for applying the precautionary principle. The discussion is also linked to the use and boundaries of risk assessments in the case of large uncertainties, and the methods for classifying risk and uncertainty problems.
机译：在风险评估和风险管理中，有许多无知的定义。大多数人指的是缺乏知识，概率分配的基础较差以及可能（尚未完全）知道的可能结果的情况。本文的目的是讨论这种情况下的无知概念。基于一组风险和不确定性特征，我们建立了表征无知水平的概念结构。这些特征包括机会的定义（相对频率解释的概率）和科学不确定性的存在。基于这些结构，我们提出了与科学不确定性相关的无知的定义，即对活动的后果如何受到潜在因素的影响缺乏了解。以此方式，无知可以被视为应用预防原则的条件。讨论还涉及在不确定性较大的情况下风险评估的用途和边界，以及对风险和不确定性问题进行分类的方法。

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