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Bayesian framework for managing preferences in decision-making

机译：贝叶斯框架，用于管理决策中的偏好

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A rational decision-making process does not exclude the possibility of decision makers expressing different preferences and disagreeing regarding the effects of consequences and optimal course of actions. This point of view is explored in depth in this paper. A framework is developed that includes several decision makers (instead of just one) and allows for the variability of preferences among these decision makers. The information provided by the varying opinions of decision makers can be used to optimize our own decision-making. To achieve this, likelihood functions are developed for stated preferences among both discrete and continuous alternatives, and stated preference rankings of alternatives. Two applications are pursued: the optimization of the lifecycle utility of a structural system subject to consequences of failure proportional to the intensity of hazards exceeding a variable threshold, and to follow-up consequences. Also, the problem of tight decisions or close calls is investigated in order to explore the efficiency of a Bayesian approach using stated preferences and stated rankings.
机译：合理的决策过程并不排除决策者表达不同的偏爱，并且对后果的影响和最佳行动方案持有不同意见的可能性。本文将深入探讨这种观点。开发了一个框架，其中包括几个决策者（而不是一个），并且允许这些决策者之间的偏好有所不同。决策者的不同意见所提供的信息可用于优化我们自己的决策。为了实现这一点，针对离散和连续替代方案中的指定偏好以及替代方案的指定偏好等级，开发了似然函数。追求两个应用程序：结构系统的生命周期效用的优化，其后果是与超过可变阈值的危险强度成正比的失效后果，以及后续后果。此外，为了确定使用偏好和排名的贝叶斯方法的效率，还研究了严格决策或紧密联系的问题。

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