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A semi-quantitative assessment process for improved use of the expected value of information measure in safety management

机译：半定量评估过程，可在安全管理中更好地利用信息措施的期望值

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摘要

For safety-related decision problems, investment in reliability information could lead to more informed decision making. The investment in such information could add value by allowing for reduction and prevention of failures and errors leading to adverse events, depending on whether the additional information is worth the acquisition cost. A common measure used to assess this is the expected value of information (EVOI). However, the traditional EVOI approach has limitations in the way it reflects risks and uncertainties. In particular, the traditional approach of expressing the uncertainties exclusively with probabilities could fail to reflect important aspects of risk related to the strength of the background knowledge on which the probabilities are conditioned (e.g. assumptions and models). An extended, semi-quantitative, approach is suggested, which allows for improved decision-making in the sense that aspects of knowledge strength are included in the decision basis. The article illustrates how the extended approach can improve EVOI assessment in safety management by using an example where there exist an option of acquiring human reliability information prior to a decision between alternative safety educational programs.
机译：对于与安全相关的决策问题，对可靠性信息的投资可能导致更明智的决策。对此类信息的投资可以通过减少和防止导致不良事件的故障和错误来增加价值，这取决于附加信息是否值得购买成本。用来评估此问题的常用方法是信息的期望值（EVOI）。但是，传统的EVOI方法在反映风险和不确定性方面存在局限性。特别是，仅用概率来表示不确定性的传统方法可能无法反映与概率所依据的背景知识的强度有关的风险的重要方面（例如假设和模型）。提出了一种扩展的半定量方法，该方法可以在决策基础中包括知识强度方面的意义上改进决策。本文通过一个示例说明扩展方法如何改善安全管理中的EVOI评估，在该示例中，可以选择在替代安全教育计划之间进行决策之前获取人员可靠性信息。

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