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首页> 外文期刊>Reliability Engineering & System Safety >Probabilistic risk assessment for interdependent critical infrastructures: A scenario-driven dynamic stochastic model
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Probabilistic risk assessment for interdependent critical infrastructures: A scenario-driven dynamic stochastic model

机译：相互依存关键基础设施的概率风险评估：一种情景驱动动态随机模型

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摘要

Critical infrastructures (CIs) are becoming increasingly important in social public services; however, various CI risk events emerge constantly with potential damages. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a quantitative measurement of risk occurrence probability that is used to support risk profile judgment and weakness identification. However, the inherent features of risk factor multiplicity, CI interdependency, and dynamic stochasticity render PRA for CIs more challenging. The purpose of this study is to investigate a PRA model for CIs with a comprehensive consideration of the inherent features and an integrated utilization of multisource data. A multidimensional PRA scenario analysis is first conducted from the perspectives of scenario elements, scenario evolution, and scenario effect. Subsequently, to support PRA for interdependent CIs, a scenario-driven dynamic stochastic model is developed based on a three-stage solution with accurate feature quantification, and effective utilization of objective factual records and subjective expert judgment. Furthermore, the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed model are demonstrated through a case study. It is indicated that the PRA results obtained using the proposed model are beneficial for decision makers to clarify the overall risk profile and determine the risk-alert periods, high-frequency risk factors, and high-risk CIs to support CI risk prevention.
机译：关键基础设施（CIS）在社会公共服务方面变得越来越重要;然而，各种CI风险事件不断出现潜在的损害。概率风险评估（PRA）是风险发生概率的定量测量，用于支持风险概况判断和弱点鉴定。然而，风险因子多重性，CI相互依赖性和动态随机性的固有特征使证件更具挑战性的PRA。本研究的目的是调查CIS的PRA模型，全面考虑固有功能和多源数据的集成利用。首先从情景元素，场景演化和情景效果的角度进行多维PRA情景分析。随后，为了支持PRA进行相互依存的CI，基于三阶段解决方案开发了一种具有精确特征量化的三级解决方案，有效利用客观事实记录和主观专家判断。此外，通过案例研究证明了所提出的模型的适用性和有效性。结果表明，使用拟议模型获得的PRA结果对决策者有益，以澄清整体风险概况，并确定风险警报期，高频风险因素和高风险联合，以支持CI风险预防。

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