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Resilience estimation of critical infrastructure systems: Application of expert judgment

机译：关键基础设施系统的恢复能力估算：专家判断的应用

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摘要

Resilience is an emerging concept whose application has increased significantly in managing engineering systems. In order to have an effective resilience management, first, an estimation of the system resilience should be undertaken. However, a lack of historical data and limited information are major challenges for system resilience estimation. The main reason is that most data collection systems are not designed for resilience assessment. Moreover, the available study dealing with resilience assessment have been used different indices to quantify the resilience of critical infrastructures including, robustness, recoverability, etc. These indices can be affected in a complex way by different factors such as operational conditions, protective practices, the recovery process, logistic process, etc. However, the available resilience studies are not so detailed regarding identifying and quantifying these influencing factors. Therefore, this paper aims to develop and apply a practical methodology to estimate resilience based on the combination of expert judgment and fuzzy set theory. By adopting this methodology, factors influencing resilience can be modeled effectively. Finally, the application of the proposed methodology is illustrated for the main fan system of an underground coal mine.
机译：弹性是一种新兴的概念，其应用在管理工程系统方面的应用程序增加。为了使有效的恢复能力管理首先，应进行对系统弹性的估计。然而，缺乏历史数据和有限的信息是系统恢复性估算的主要挑战。主要原因是大多数数据收集系统都没有设计用于抵御抵御评估。此外，处理恢复力评估的可用研究已经使用不同的指标来量化关键基础设施的恢复性，包括鲁棒性，可恢复性等。这些指标可以通过不同因素，如操作条件，保护实践，保护实践恢复过程，后勤过程等，有关识别和量化这些影响因素，不可用的恢复性研究不是详细的。因此，本文旨在基于专家判断与模糊集理论的结合来开发和应用实用的方法来估算弹性。通过采用这种方法，可以有效地建模影响弹性的因素。最后，针对地下煤矿的主风扇系统说明了所提出的方法的应用。

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