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Toward Disaster-Resilient Cities: Characterizing Resilience of Infrastructure Systems with Expert Judgments

机译：迈向抗灾城市：通过专家判断来表征基础设施系统的弹性

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摘要

Resilient infrastructure systems are essential for cities to withstand and rapidly recover from natural and human-induced disasters, yet electric power, transportation, and other infrastructures are highly vulnerable and interdependent. New approaches for characterizing the resilience of sets of infrastructure systems are urgently needed, at community and regional scales. This article develops a practical approach for analysts to characterize a community's infrastructure vulnerability and resilience in disasters. It addresses key challenges of incomplete incentives, partial information, and few opportunities for learning. The approach is demonstrated for Metro Vancouver, Canada, in the context of earthquake and flood risk. The methodological approach is practical and focuses on potential disruptions to infrastructure services. In spirit, it resembles probability elicitation with multiple experts; however, it elicits disruption and recovery over time, rather than uncertainties regarding system function at a given point in time. It develops information on regional infrastructure risk and engages infrastructure organizations in the process. Information sharing, iteration, and learning among the participants provide the basis for more informed estimates of infrastructure system robustness and recovery that incorporate the potential for interdependent failures after an extreme event. Results demonstrate the vital importance of cross-sectoral communication to develop shared understanding of regional infrastructure disruption in disasters. For Vancouver, specific results indicate that in a hypothetical M7.3 earthquake, virtually all infrastructures would suffer severe disruption of service in the immediate aftermath, with many experiencing moderate disruption two weeks afterward. Electric power, land transportation, and telecommunications are identified as core infrastructure sectors.
机译：弹性的基础设施系统对于城市来说是必不可少的，可以抵御自然灾害和人为灾害并从中快速恢复，但是电力，交通和其他基础设施却非常脆弱且相互依存。迫切需要在社区和区域范围内表征基础设施系统集的弹性的新方法。本文为分析人员开发了一种实用的方法，以表征社区的基础架构漏洞和灾难恢复能力。它解决了不完整的激励措施，部分信息和很少的学习机会的主要挑战。在地震和洪水风险的背景下，该方法已在加拿大大温哥华市得到证明。该方法学方法是实用的，着重于对基础设施服务的潜在破坏。从本质上讲，它类似于多位专家的概率启发。但是，随着时间的流逝，它会引发破坏和恢复，而不是在给定的时间点上有关系统功能的不确定性。它开发有关区域基础设施风险的信息，并使基础设施组织参与其中。参与者之间的信息共享，迭代和学习为基础架构系统的健壮性和恢复提供了更明智的估计基础，其中结合了极端事件后相互依赖的故障的可能性。结果表明，跨部门沟通对于建立对灾难中的区域基础设施破坏的共识至关重要。对于温哥华而言，具体结果表明，在假设的M7.3地震中，几乎所有基础设施都将在灾后立即遭受严重的服务中断，许多基础设施在两周后遭受中度中断。电力，陆路运输和电信被确定为核心基础设施领域。

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  • 来源
    《Risk analysis》 |2014年第3期|416-434|共19页
  • 作者

    Stephanie E. Chang; Timothy McDaniels; Jana Fox; Rajan Dhariwal; Holly Longstaff;

  • 作者单位

    School of Community and Regional Planning,University of British Columbia,242-1933 West Mall,Vancouver,BC,V6T 1Z2,Canada;

    School of Community and Regional Planning,University of British Columbia,242-1933 West Mall,Vancouver,BC,V6T 1Z2,Canada;

    School of Community and Regional Planning,University of British Columbia,242-1933 West Mall,Vancouver,BC,V6T 1Z2,Canada;

    School of Community and Regional Planning,University of British Columbia,242-1933 West Mall,Vancouver,BC,V6T 1Z2,Canada;

    School of Community and Regional Planning,University of British Columbia,242-1933 West Mall,Vancouver,BC,V6T 1Z2,Canada;

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Disasters; expert judgment; infrastructure; interdependencies; resilience;

    机译：灾难;专家判断;基础设施;相互依存弹性;

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