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An improved failure mode and effect analysis method for multi-criteria group decision-making in green logistics risk assessment

机译:绿色物流风险评估多标准组决策的改进失效模式及效果分析方法

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摘要

As one of the powerful systematic reliability management tool, the failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) method is adopted to investigate and analyze potential failure mode (FM) risks of the cold chain green logistics (CCGL). Since FMEA experts have different professional backgrounds and risk preferences, they may give evaluation from different angle and emphasis; and express different limited rational behavior. Therefore, this study proposes an improved FMEA model which considers the expert group and the bounded rational behavior of experts. Firstly, this paper develops the K-means clustering method to partition FMEA experts. Further, a calculation model of attribute weights that considers different risk attitudes is proposed. Additionally, this study proposes a combination final ranking method based on regret theory (RT) and PROMETHEE II method. A practical case and two simulation experiments are carried out to demonstrate the validity, reliability and superiority performance of the proposed FMEA model. The improved FMEA model can enhance the fairness and reasonableness of the expert evaluation, improve the adaptability and flexibility of FMEA, and enrich the theoretical research of FMEA method. Findings indicated that it is necessary to consider the grouping and risk attitudes of experts in the practical risk assessment.
机译:作为强大的系统可靠性管理工具之一,采用故障模式和效果分析(FMEA)方法来研究和分析冷链绿色物流(CCGL)的潜在失效模式(FM)风险。由于FMEA专家具有不同的专业背景和风险偏好,因此它们可能会从不同的角度和重点进行评估;并表达不同的有限合理行为。因此,本研究提出了一种改进的FMEA模型,其考虑专家组和专家的有界合理行为。首先,本文开发了k-means聚类方法来分配FMEA专家。此外,提出了考虑不同风险态度的属性权重的计算模型。此外,本研究提出了基于遗憾理论(RT)和Promethee II方法的组合最终排名方法。进行了实际情况和两个模拟实验,以证明所提出的FMEA模型的有效性,可靠性和优越性。改进的FMEA模型可以提高专家评估的公平性和合理性,提高FMEA的适应性和灵活性,丰富了FMEA方法的理论研究。调查结果表明,在实际风险评估中考虑专家的分组和风险态度。

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