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A Stochastic Framework for Reliability and Sensitivity Analysis of Large Scale Water Distribution Networks

机译：大型供水管网可靠性和敏感性分析的随机框架

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摘要

The hydraulic reliability and sensitivity analysis of large scale water distribution systems in presence of uncertainty is considered in this work. The assessment of the network reliability and sensitivity is performed by an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo method, namely Subset simulation. Prescribed nodal heads of storage tanks, nodal demands and pipe roughness coefficients are modeled as uncertain parameters and described in a probabilistic manner. Failure is assumed to occur when the minimum nodal head in the network is lower than a minimum allowable value. The efficiency of the proposed method is demonstrated with the analysis of a real water distribution network consisting of a large number of nodes and pipes (of the order of thousands). The corresponding reliability problem represents a high dimensional problem. The approach gives an important insight into the performance, reliability and sensitivity of a class of complex utility networks.
机译：在这项工作中考虑了大型水分配系统在不确定情况下的水力可靠性和灵敏度分析。网络可靠性和敏感性的评估是通过有效的马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗方法进行的，即子集仿真。将规定的储罐节点头，节点需求和管道粗糙度系数建模为不确定参数，并以概率方式进行描述。当网络中的最小节点头低于最小允许值时，假定发生故障。通过对由大量节点和管道（成千上万个）组成的实际供水网络的分析，证明了所提出方法的效率。相应的可靠性问题代表高维问题。该方法对一类复杂的公用网络的性能，可靠性和敏感性提供了重要的见识。

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