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首页> 外文期刊>Reliability Engineering & System Safety >Modeling the probability of failure on demand (pfd) of a 1-out-of-2 system in which one channel is 'quasi-perfect'
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Modeling the probability of failure on demand (pfd) of a 1-out-of-2 system in which one channel is 'quasi-perfect'

机译：对其中一个通道为“准完美”的2分之一系统的按需故障概率（pfd）进行建模

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Our earlier work proposed ways of overcoming some of the difficulties of lack of independence in reliability modeling of 1-out-of-2 software-based systems. Firstly, it is well known that aleatory independence between the failures of two channels A and B cannot be assumed, so system pfd is not a simple product of channel pfds. However, it has been shown that the probability of system failure can be bounded conservatively by a simple product of pfdA and pnpB (probability not perfect) in those special cases where channel B is sufficiently simple to be possibly perfect. Whilst this "solves" the problem of aleatory dependence, the issue of epistemic dependence remains: An assessor's beliefs about unknown pfdA and pnpB will not have them independent. Recent work has partially overcome this problem by requiring only marginal beliefs - at the price of further conservatism. Here we generalize these results. Instead of "perfection" we introduce the notion of "quasi perfection": a small pfd practically equivalent to perfection (e.g. yielding very small chance of failure in the entire life of a fleet of systems). We present a conservative argument supporting claims about system pfd. We propose further work, e.g. to conduct "what if?" calculations to understand exactly how conservative our approach might be in practice, and suggest further simplifications.
机译：我们较早的工作提出了一些方法来克服基于软件的系统中2之1的可靠性建模中缺乏独立性的一些困难。首先，众所周知，不能假定两个通道A和B的故障之间具有持久的独立性，因此系统pfd并不是通道pfds的简单产物。但是，已经表明，在某些特殊情况下，如果通道B足够简单以至于可能是完美的，则可以通过pfdA和pnpB的简单乘积（概率不完美）来保守地限制系统故障的可能性。尽管这“解决”了偶然依赖的问题，但认知依赖的问题仍然存在：评估者对未知的pfdA和pnpB的信念不会使它们独立。最近的工作通过仅要求边际信念而部分克服了这个问题，但这是以进一步的保守主义为代价的。在这里，我们概括这些结果。我们不是“完美”，而是引入了“准完美”的概念：一个很小的pfd，实际上等同于完美（例如，在整个系统生命周期中发生故障的机会很小）。我们提出一个保守的论据来支持有关系统pfd的主张。我们建议进一步的工作，例如进行“如果？”计算以确切了解我们的方法在实践中可能有多保守，并建议进一步简化。

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