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Incorporating assumption deviation risk in quantitative risk assessments: A semi-quantitative approach

机译：在定量风险评估中纳入假设偏差风险：一种半定量方法

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摘要

Quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) of complex engineering systems are based on numerous assumptions and expert judgments, as there is limited information available for supporting the analysis. In addition to sensitivity analyses, the concept of assumption deviation risk has been suggested as a means for explicitly considering the risk related to inaccuracies and deviations in the assumptions, which can significantly impact the results of the QRAs. However, challenges remain for its practical implementation, considering the number of assumptions and magnitude of deviations to be considered. This paper presents an approach for integrating an assumption deviation risk analysis as part of QRAs. The approach begins with identifying the safety objectives for which the QRA aims to support, and then identifies critical assumptions with respect to ensuring the objectives are met. Key issues addressed include the deviations required to violate the safety objectives, the uncertainties related to the occurrence of such events, and the strength of knowledge supporting the assessments. Three levels of assumptions are considered, which include assumptions related to the system's structural and operational characteristics, the effectiveness of the established barriers, as well as the consequence analysis process. The approach is illustrated for the case of an offshore installation.
机译：复杂工程系统的定量风险评估（QRA）基于众多假设和专家判断，因为可用于支持分析的信息有限。除了敏感性分析之外，还提出了假设偏差风险的概念，作为明确考虑与假设中的不准确性和偏差相关的风险的一种方法，这可能会严重影响QRA的结果。但是，考虑到假设的数量和要考虑的偏差量，其实际实施仍面临挑战。本文提出了一种将假设偏差风险分析作为QRA的一部分进行集成的方法。该方法首先确定QRA旨在支持的安全目标，然后确定关于确保达到目标的关键假设。解决的关键问题包括违反安全目标所需的偏差，与此类事件的发生相关的不确定性以及支持评估的知识强度。考虑了三个级别的假设，包括与系统的结构和操作特性，已建立的障碍的有效性以及后果分析过程相关的假设。举例说明了海上安装的方法。

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